Ronny Max

Better Place

2009-12-08T07:20:00.001-05:00

Years ago a fortuneteller told me that a man with ocean blue eyes will take me to a better place. I was nineteen, a college student, celebrating my birthday in a frenzy of newly found freedom. Roaming the streets of Height Ashbury, a San Francisco neighborhood where eccentrics are the norm, I entered a cubical no bigger than a mid-sized bed, where an old fortune teller with gnarled hands and wrinkled chin read my palm and consulted astrological charts before pronouncing my fate. I was naïve and should not have taken her seriously, but I did.

I graduated from University of California in Berkley with honors, and started working for the First Bank of America as an investment banker. I was driven, worked 14 hour days, and in five years I became the youngest Vice President in the history of the bank. My days filled with business events and the evenings with social activities. The walls in my apartment were soon covered with the honors I accumulated, but my heart was empty. At night my thoughts often returned to the old fortuneteller and the promise of a better place.

I met Rick in a party. He was a cop, tall and handsome in a rugged sort of way. I loved the masculine smell of motorcycles and boats, I loved the clean-cut good and bad views of the world, and I loved that he adored me. Shawn was born three years later. I had everything a woman could want, but my heart still searched for that elusive better place.

Shawn grew from a crying baby into a precocious five year old. I wish I could take credit for my son, but I was busy trotting the globe. My specialty was to find a company in distress and sell it to a predator who would take it down piece by piece, selling assets, firing people, and pay me lots of money. In the office they called me the Volcano; at home I was simply absent.

Saturday morning started as usual, with Rick making breakfast and Shawn hovering around him like a yearling clamoring for the anticipated feed. I walked out of the bedroom, stood at the entrance to the kitchen, and knew I no longer belonged. The serenity of father and son, memorabilia of camping trips, golf clubs in the corner, all belonged to Rick and Shawn. I was an outsider in my home.

“I’m leaving.” I said quietly. “A European Bank offered me a job.”

Rick’s brown eyes darkened and the creases around his mouth deepened, “Why don’t we drive to the lake? Take the boat for a spin.”

“Don’t.” I used to love the simplicity of my husband. Rick wanted to watch football with his buddies, teach his son to golf, and spend time with me. He didn’t care for a bigger house, the elaborate parties, or half-year salary vacation. The yes-and-no attitude that once seemed a fountain of strength today was just boring. I didn’t know what I wanted, but I knew I wanted more. I wanted my better place.

We discussed the separation for hours. I left Rick the house, a monthly allowance, the life insurance, and Shawn. Then I booked a flight to Paris.

There was only one thing left to do. I had to tell my five year old son that his mother is leaving him.

I drove him to playground.

The weather turn crisp cold as the wind fumbled between the wooden structures. The playground was full with kids and Shawn waved to a group of two girls and a boy, none of which I recognized. I tried to put his coat on but he shrugged it off, leaving the loose tee shirt that was twice his size to protect him from the cold. I said, “Shawn, I love you.”

He nodded and his eyes darted toward the swings. “I love you too, Mommy.”

“Shawn, Mommy and Daddy don’t love each other the same way...” I was stumbling. “I’m moving out of the house, but that does not mean I love you any less.”

He started jumping up and down, “Mommy, can I go on the big slide?”

“Shawn,” I tried again, “We’re going to be partners.”

“Mommy,” my son turned serious and for a moment I saw my five year old son as a grown adult, smart, focused, and a much better parent than his mother, “I want to play.”

“Sure.” I let him go and watched him climb easily on the biggest rail. I wondered if my child understood that when I pack up my suitcase tonight and leave, I will not be coming back.

An hour later, we drove home. Shawn fumbled with the robot he got for his birthday, “Mommy, are you going to be like Daddy’s partner?”

Rick and his partner were inseparable. During countless robberies and assaults, the two cops watched the other’s back. They were best friends, finishing each other’s sentences. Sometimes I wished I had that kind of relationship with the man who shared my bed for the past ten years.

I fought the tears. Think of a better place, I encouraged myself. “Yes, I will.”

“Partners take care of each other,” Shawn was repeating his Daddy’s words.

“Yes, they do,” I said, hoping my son will not grow up hating his mother for leaving him for a fairy tale of unfulfilled dreams.

“Can I have ice cream?”

“Sure.” I spotted a gas station and turned the car into the almost deserted parking area. Shawn flicked me one of his heart-melting smiles, jumped out of the car and ran into the store.

My little boy was rummaging the ice cream bin when I opened the door and stepped inside.

The Pakistani man standing behind the counter nodded in a frightened surprise when I turned my head and saw the man dressed in black. The man was tall, with shoulders like a bull and legs like tree stumps. He had dark features and sullen cheekbones, sending an aurora of desperation and lost hope. In his right hand, he held a gun.

Shawn found his ice cream cone, and held it high in the air with triumph. Then he saw the gun turning toward him and screamed in a high pitch voice, “Mommy!”

I jumped. The crack of the gun shrieked the air as I cuddled my son in a protective cocoon. The bullet raced toward me and I turned seeing the abyss in the ocean blue eyes of the man who killed me. Pain exploded in my veins and dark red blood gushed out of the hole in my heart, but I felt peaceful. I knew my son was safe and I was forgiven. I walked into the white light, toward my better place.

Phantom of the Boat Show

2009-06-14T12:49:00.000-04:00

(Short Story) Marianne Robinson prepared her Pina Coladas with precision. She poured the mix into the blender, added five shots of rum, and filled ice to the rim. She let the blender run exactly seven seconds until the mix turned into a blend of white. She poured the puree into four colorful plastic martini glasses and handed them around. Then she raised her cup in salute. “To us girls, may we be healthy and happy.”
“Here, here,” nodded Carolyn, throwing her blond pony tail backwards as she jiggled her drink down her throat. “To a lovely Sunday afternoon. To friendship!”
“Enjoy it while we can,” Dorothy groaned from the comfort of the sunken cushions on the upper deck of the speedboat. The Sea Breeze tilted slightly as the wind simmered to cool off the Florida heat. “This Boat Show sucks, and if the economy continues downhill, we may not be here next year.”
“Water Kids is suffering,” Natalie said quietly.
Marianne protectively looked at her daughter as Natalie rearranged her skirt to cover the long legs that seemed to cross the boat from stern to starboard. Natalie said softly, “We’re down twenty percent in contributions from last year.”
“Lucky the Phantom tucked the Queen in the mud,” Carolyn said, flexing her muscles to stretch the lean athletic build that came with a titanic amount of energy. “If Bobby Snooty had his way, the fundraiser would have been cancelled.”
“Robert Snow is a big contributor,” Natalie objected slightly, sipping slowly from her soda water.
“Robert Snow is one big floozy,” Dorothy said, wiping a bit of Pina Colada from her jeans. “A hundred grand is child’s play for him, and I for one am glad someone knocked his precious boat and put it exactly where it belonged - in the mud!”
“It was wrong,” Natalie said.
“Wrong?” Dorothy launched one of her famous stares. “What’s so morally wrong about hurting a greedy narcissist like Bobby Snooty?”
“Sweetie, the Phantom saved your fundraiser,” Carolyn said softly.
“Programming a speedboat to hit the Queen is not a right thing to do,” Natalie fluttered her eyebrows in a way teenage girls do when they are told they cannot stay out all night and play. “It’s illegal. Besides, the Phantom could go to jail. Luckily the Queen didn’t suffer serious damages only a scratch.”
“The scratch was enough to keep Snooty from bailing out,” Carolyn gulped down her drink. “He couldn’t tell the media swarms he was cancelling a fundraiser for kids with disabilities because some Wall Street schmucks wanted a private playground.”
“Putting your hubby down?” Dorothy slapped her friend’s wrist down in a friendly gesture.
“I love my Peter,” Carolyn said playfully, “It doesn’t mean he’s not a schmuck.”
“I’m one grateful client,” Marianne said. “If Peter had not warned us in time, we would have lost half our money.” The Sea Breeze was her pride and joy, a place she cherished as the paradise away from the grind. The mere thought of losing the yacht was frightening. “Enough of this morbid talk, how about a little race next weekend?”
“Peter will go for it,” Carolyn husband’s thirst for the fast and furious was well known in the boating community.
“Jake too,” Dorothy said.
“It settled then,” Marianne said. “Next weekend, we’ll let the guys start, then…” She smiled as Carolyn and Dorothy started laughing. The guys always raced first but things got really interesting when the girls took over. Then the fun began.
“You are so bad,” Natalie said, twisting her nose as sign of slight disapproval.
“And you are so, so good, sweetie,” Carolyn winked. “How did you came out of your mother, I don’t know.”
“Her daddy had something to do with it,” Marianne patted her daughter.
“Hey, look who is coming over,” Dorothy said. “It’s that gorgeous cop, the one that looks like that singer, you know the one with the throaty voice. What’s his name? Pinto? Pintos?”
“Carlo Fuentes,” Natalie said. “Detective Fuentes.”
“Detective Pronto?” Carolyn laughed. As a distinctive board member of Broward County Hospital, Carolyn knew everyone that was anyone in Fort Lauderdale. Marianne had the utmost admiration of her friend’s ability to make friends and avoid enemies despite her witty and sometime painfully honest commentary. “That man has an eye for details and the highest solved crime rate in the county. The downside, there’s only black and white in that man‘s mind. No shades of gray. And he’s always on time - hence Pronto.”
“That’s not nice,” Natalie said. “You should be worried. He’s been asking questions about the Phantom.”
“Detective Pronto sounds…delicious,” Dorothy said. “Marianne, make another round of your famous Pina Colada. We need juice to face Captain Pronto.”
“Sure,” Marianne said. As she bent down to open the half hidden freezer and take out the Pina Colada mix, she saw in the corner of her eye the black shirt seeping out of the bottom drawer. Slowly, as if she was picking up an imaginary strand of trash from the spotless floor, she pushed the black shirt into the drawer, rolling away the hole on the left sleeve. She shut the door tightly. She hid an inner sigh of relief and added one more thing to her to-do-list as Detective Carlo Fuentes stepped onto the boat.
“Ladies,” Detective Fuentes voice carried the same milky soothing that his olive tanned body projected. “I’d like to ask you a few questions regarding an incident on Friday night, here on the marina.”
“You mean the Phantom who launched a little speedboat into the mighty Queen,” Dorothy shook her curly hair. “We can’t say we’re sorry.”
“You must excuse my friend,” Carolyn said. “Hello detective, remember me?”
“Yes, Ms. Heller,” Detective Fuentes said calmly. “It’s hard to forget someone who has done so much for injured policemen. Yet justice must be done, regardless of the people involved.”
“Of course,” Carolyn nodded as if she was in complete agreement. “How can we help, Detective?”
Detective Fuentes scoured the Sea Breeze deck, the driver seat Marianne commanded, the passenger seat where Natalie sat straight and tall, and the wide cushions where Dorothy slouched on one side and Carolyn stretched on the other. Next to Marianne was a large cupboard topped with glasses, bottles and a blender. Behind the seats stretched a wide dashboard full of electronic gadgets that only hinted at the Sea Breeze role as the fastest speedboat in the marina. “Why would someone want to hit the Queen?”
“The Queen is just a boat, a big beautiful, exquisite boat, but just a boat,” Carolyn said. “There’s no reason why would anyone want to damage the Queen but I can give you a long list of people who would want to hurt Robert Snow.”
“Snooty is a seriously unpleasant person,” Dorothy agreed.
“Yet Robert Snow lent his Queen for the Water Kids fundraiser?” Detective Fuentes turned to Natalie who was rearranging coasters and glasses.
“Yes,” Natalie tilted her model-like legs back and forth, unaware of the slight blush in the young detective’s cheeks. “The Queen is the only yacht in the boat show with a big enough deck to host 150 people. We have been promoting the fundraiser for months.”
“You were angry when Robert Snow changed his mind at the last minute?”
Natalie was about to answer when Marianne stepped forward. “We were all angry. Robert came over on Friday morning and said he needed the boat for the weekend and he was pulling out of the boatshow.”
“That’s unusual?”
“That’s unheard off,” Carolyn jumped in. “No one has ever pulled out such a big boat at the last minute, and for money no less. If Snow had moved the Queen he would have significantly hurt the reputation of the Fort Lauderdale Boat Show.”
“As I understand it, moving the Queen would have hurt the standing of the current Chair, Ms. Robinson?”
“Yes it would,” Marianne said, reasserting her stature as the decision maker who makes the tough calls. “With all due respect to this logic, Detective, as it may have hurt my standing as the Chairperson, it would have hurt Robert Snow even more. This is a small community. If Robert Snow left the boat show, he would have never been invited back.”
“That’s like a death-sentence,” Dorothy echoed. “Socially speaking.”
“And yet, the Rockers who dock directly across from the speedboat that was launched at the Queen, believe they saw a shadowy figure. A Phantom who is not only petite enough to hide in the speedboat but also an expert racer, otherwise how would the speedboat hit the Queen without damaging the yacht yet creating just the slightest disturbance to shove it into the mud.”
“Marianne may have the correct build and the skills necessary to be the Phantom,” Carolyn said, “But we were here, on the Sea Breeze, sitting just as we’re now, on the deck, enjoying a fine evening.”
Detective Fuentes took out a slight notebook from his jacket’s left pocket and stirred the pages. “There were two people sitting on the deck.”
“At night you only see clearly those who sit on the side catering to the dock,” Carolyn said.
“We did have some candles,” Dorothy observed. “The husbands played poker on my boat, two docks down, and we hung around here.”
“Ms. Heller, you were quite visible,” the detective read from his note and looked up at Carolyn, “but the others were not, except for a… green coat.”
“Aha,” Carolyn jumped and ran down to the lower level returning with a green coat laced with black shingles, “Marianne’s latest.”
“What about you, Ms. Brenner?” Detective Fuentes asked Dorothy.
“Oh, I’m about jeans and tee shirts. You won’t catch me in those crazy outfits.”
“Ms. Brenner as owner of a yacht company you have the expertise to operate the speedboat that damaged the Queen.”
“I build yachts.“ Dorothy pouted her lips. “But if you think I’m the Phantom - as much as I would have loved to have been a suspect in such a merry adventure - but when it comes to sailing I’m a klutz.”
“Dorothy, you’re not a klutz,” Marianne said warmly.
“Stop mothering me,” Dorothy protested. “I can’t drive a tug boat without banging into a bridge.”
“No, you can’t sail,” Marianne agreed, “but you know everything there is to know about boats. Without you we would have been lost.”
“Well that’s that,” Carolyn stumped her feet in a sign of finality, “we were here on the Sea Breeze on Friday night, any more questions?”
“There is one member in the Robinson family unaccounted for, “Detective Fuentes looked at Natalie. “Sinking the Queen into the mud allowed the Water Kids fundraiser to continue. Also, you’re a skilled sailor, and you have been seen walking down the dock toward the Queen.”
“What are you saying?”, Dorothy demanded.
“He’s saying motive, skills and opportunity,” Carolyn said, puzzled.
“Natalie had nothing to do with it,” Marianne said forcefully, “Nothing!”
“Mom, please,” Natalie begged. She turned to Detective Fuentes. “Water Kids is a non-profit dedicated to kids with disabilities. We take them out on the water, teach them to sail, teach them that they can do something amazing. These kids are not pictures in the newspaper somewhere far away, they are real, and they are a part of our community. Daniel was born with a deformity that took away one hand and twisted the other. Jason at 10 years old had been in more surgeries than most people have visited the dentist. And Ali, this sweet beautiful kid has a year to live if she’s lucky. Water Kids gives dignity to those kids.”
“Natalie, did you launch the speedboat at the Queen?” Detective Fuentes asked gently.
“Natalie had nothing to do with it,” Marianne said as panic took over. Natalie said she was going for a late night stroll and Marianne did not anticipate that her daughter would not have an alibi. The detective was determined and Natalie did not stand a chance.
Marianne knew she would not let her daughter take the blame for her decision. She pushed away thoughts of the shame on her husband’s face, the scorn of her community, and the possibility that she might end up in jail. She could not even imagine what that would do to Carolyn and Dorothy. Right or wrong she had broken the law, and fearful or not it was time to face the consequences. “I’m the Phantom.”
“Mom, please, stop.” Natalie looked at Detective Fuentes. “I did walk toward the Queen, but not to sabotage the yacht. I went to see Jake Snow.” Natalie turned to her mother, her eyes sad, “I’m sorry mom. I’m sorry.”
Marianne realized what her beautiful daughter had done. She protected her offspring like a lioness, but Natalie was always a pleaser, trying to make everyone else happy first. “Oh honey, I’m the one who should be sorry.”
“It was my choice. Mine.”
“What happened?” Detective Fuentes asked again.
“Jake Snow said he would convince his father not to pull out the Queen if I…”
“You are one brave girl,” Dorothy broke the silence that ensued.
“No, I’m a coward,” Natalie wiped a small tear. “I couldn’t do it. I could not bring myself to give up on my principles and save my kids. By saying no to Jake, I sealed the fate of Water Kids. We would have had to cut fifty percent of activities at best without the fundraiser. I don‘t feel proud that I didn‘t have the strength to save my kids.”
She gave Fuentes a sad smile. “Jake and I were arguing on the upper deck when the speedboat hit the Queen. Ask him, he’ll verify we were together.”
Detective Fuentes nodded, looking relieved.
“Do you have other suspects, Detective?” Carolyn asked.
“No.”
“We may never know who the phantom really is,” Dorothy concluded.
“Natalie, I still need an official statement,” Detective Fuentes said, his cheeks blushing. “Would you mind coming down to the station with me?”
“Not at all,” Natalie smiled brilliantly. “I would like a moment with my mother.”
“Of course.” Detective Carlo Fuentes bowed slightly, “Ladies,” and navigated his way off the boat and down the dock, his hair blowing slightly against the simmering winds that accompanied the Florida sunset.
Once the Detective was firmly out of earshot, Natalie open the side drawer and took out the black shirt with a hole in its left sleeve. Calmly she took off her jacket, put the black shirt on, then put back the jacket in half open way, sleeves rolled up.
“What are you doing, dear?” Marianne asked.
“It’s getting a bit cold. This black shirt will do nicely, although I will probably throw it in the garbage later tonight. After all it is a bit torn.”
“How did you know,” Carolyn asked.
“Mom made such a big fuss over her new coat that I found it odd she gave it to Ms. Tee-shirts and Jeans. No offence, Dorothy, you fooled many with your impression of my mom sitting on the upper deck of Sea Breeze, taking her coat and pinning up your hair, but you could not fool me.
“As Detective Fuentes realized, the Phantom had to have a small build to fit into the speedboat without being detected and she also had to have the expertise to pull such a stunt. I don’t know anyone who could fit both descriptions except my mother.”
Natalie hugged her speechless mother, “Next time Mom, stick to tennis.”
She blew a kiss at Carolyn and Dorothy and walked out, the black shirt tucked in under the blue jacket.
“Seems the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree,” Dorothy nodded approvingly. “I’d say she earned a seat at our Sunday get together.”
Carolyn raised her almost empty glass, “To Natalie.”
Marianne picked up the blender and poured the rest of the Pina Colada puree into the empty three glasses. “To true friends.”

2008 in Context

2009-01-02T08:50:00.001-05:00

2008 was a difficult year. It was a year of financial turmoil, of a poisonous election, and of war. It was also a year that Change and Hope themes dominated… at least until the economy collapsed.

2008 was a year when individuals soured and soared. It was the year of greedy executives, hypocritical governors, corruption and just plain stupid behavior. But it was also a year of Barak Obama, and Ben Benerke, and Hank Paulson.

Yet, if I had to choose my person of the year it would be America – the system that is America, where law and freedom and errors and hopes are all mixed together. To me, Change is what drives America - the land of opportunity - and what a wonderful country it is.

Gloom and Doom this Holiday Season

2008-11-16T07:49:00.002-05:00

I'm in a post-election depression. No more bickering between the candidates made the media refocus on the latest sensation – the gloom and doom of the American Consumer.

Shopping is a respected past time in America. If the kids are bored, take them shopping. If the husband nags, send him on a quest for some new toy. And if a bit of moodiness sinks in, then a dash to the store for a new shirt. Take away Christmas shopping and America is in shock.

Don't worry, say our glorified leaders, the White Knight government is here to help – we will spend money. How about a trillion dollar of bailouts?

Okay, okay, these are special times, and yes, government spending is the key to put a stop on a deteriorating economy, but… and there is always a BUT… government money comes with the parental catch – take the money, give us control. If they could give the money, reframe what we can and cannot do, then get out of the way, that's great. Innovation needs space, and the ability to make an error. Let's not make the mistake of mixing regulation with strangulation.

Dear Government, this is my holiday wish – give the money, set the rules, and stay out of my living room.

The Clue That Was Not There

2008-11-08T11:13:00.002-05:00

(A short story) Casey Case walked her dog every day at 6:45am and this humid Floridian morning started like any other day. She put on her walking shoes, choosing the pink laced socks that matched the stripes on her shorts, straightened the sleeves- cut top, picked the leash and let Dandy take the lead out the door. The Border Collie waited patiently as Casey locked the white door to her tiny one bedroom duplex; then the dog turned east and wagged her tail as the two embraced the sidewalk that would take them to the ocean.

South Beach at dawn was a mix of regulars, surfers who started the day with a splash, elderly gentlemen who strolled along the polished promenade and enthusiastic tourists who for some unfathomed reason decided that a vacation is not to be wasted in bed. The morning walks were part exercise, part social ritual, and part self-therapy, an inducement to start the day with vigor and excitement.

Casey was the assistant to the assistant to the first assistant of the famed designer Gianni Versace. It was not a small job – yes she picked up coffee mugs and ran errands for the crowd that made a celebrity famous – but because of Casey, nothing seemed out of reach or impossible to get, whether a yacht for a cruise on the Mediterranean or a specialty chocolate cake that only one chef in France can make. Because of Casey, Versace ensured his guests and admirers their desires were met without much ado. Casey Case made dreams come true.

As Casey turned into the northern corner of Ocean Drive, she saw the rooftop of her employer's mansion. Hidden behind the trees and steel gate was a marvel of architecture and texture; a cavern of high ceilings and wide windows, where the sun rode the breeze into a cacophony of original arts and rainbow furniture. A manual of perfection made possible by the man walking slowly down the street. In his customary early morning walk, Gianni Versace was removed from the genius of his daily activity into the drabness of simplicity. A middle-aged man walking leisurely to get the newspaper… a man accosted by another, a younger man who raised a gun and shot.

Casey watched in horror as the assailant pushed his hand inside the falling Versace's shirt and fled. Her employer slumped down. By the time Casey and Dandy had reached the designer the hole of blood was spreading quickly, but Gianni Versace was still alive. He grasped her hand, "Destroy the Jewel of Frame! Destroy it! Tell no one." The air bubbled out in horse whispers, and his grip grew tighter. "Promise me. Destroy this evil. Promise me!" Casey exhaled in acquiescence; then the famed designer was gone.

Casey held the hand of the man she admired, remembering the lush red and orange of his living room chairs, the tall ceilings that called the sky down, the golden pool of merriness, the courtyard of blue and white marble floors, and the designer's meticulous attention to details that turned fabric and stone into a fantasia of desire. Then she remembered the shooter.

The rest of the morning was hazy. There were people, a crowd of onlookers, crying, shouting in anger, and there were police officers, and so many questions. Casey sat cross-legged on the sidewalk, hugging Dandy, when Mike Segarra walked toward her.

The policeman was not too tall, not too burly, but his stance was steady and his blue eyes twinkled in the early morning sun. "Hi Casey. Remember me, we went to the same high school."

Casey looked up. He did look familiar. "You dated my sister!"

"I don't think fifth grade counts as dating," he laughed. Mike moved toward Dandy who bowed her head and let him pet her. ""You saw the murder?" He asked casually.

"Yes."

"You said you recognized the shooter?"

"I had seen him before."

"Where?"

"In a bar. Don Quixote about a week ago." Don Quixote was a prestigious gay bar in South Beach.

"What were you doing there?" He asked gently.

"Working. I work for Gianni Versace."

"I think of him as a Floater," Casey said later to Mike Segarra as they sat in the detective's cubical, one of many among the central havoc of the downtown police station. She picked up a picture from the dozens of mug shots that Mike had spread on the desk. The assailant's name was Andrew Cunanan and he already killed three people, leaving a trail of death from San Diego to Chicago and Pennsylvania.

"He went where the rich guys were," Mike said.

"Not money. Fame." Casey said. "Floaters seek publicity, and no one gave a better shove to celebrity than Gianni Versace. If a person was a member of the Versace crowd, he had made. It is an exclusive club, by invitation only."

"We're always searching for something and sometimes we need a reminder what is important." Mike handed her the guest list. "Is destroying the rest of your life really worth fifteen minutes of fame?"

Casey shrugged but she did know what the Floater took and she did not say. Gianni Versace had a jewel charmed with Fame. One night she overheard her employer tell the story of the necklace. It was a long tale that Casey did not remember, but Versace dying words played repeatedly in her mind. "Promise me. Destroy the jewel. Do not tell anyone. Promise me, Casey."

She thanked Mike for his kindness and walked Dandy out of the police station. Looking back she saw the the police officer standing at the station's stairs. Did he know, she wondered, did Mike Segarra know that Casey Case knew where to find the murderous Floater.

She recognized the name on the guest list. The person whom Versace had told the tale. The person who came from the West Coast where the Floater had started his murderous trail. Both worked the same party scene. Both craved fame. One was a murderer. The other had a houseboat.

At night Casey left Dandy at home and walked the two blocks to the docks. She peered at the houseboat. With the shades down, the houseboat looked empty, boxy and uninviting. She sheepishly looked around and except for the old caretaker at the other end of the dock no one was around. She moved closer and tried the door. It was unlocked, the key broken, and she went in.

The houseboat was one big room, with a sofa, two chairs, a table and a small galley. It was empty but the food crumbs on the counter told the story that someone had recently been here. The sound alerted her but before she could move the door opened. They stared at each other. The murderer and Casey. She recognized the Jewel of Fame dangling from the Floater's neck as he took out the gun.

Casey bolted out the door, knocking the Floater down, ignoring the breeze of steel swooshing her arm. She ran, first north, then south, then west until she reached her duplex. Back home, she shivered as Dandy licked her for comfort. But Casey's thoughts were consumed by a gold necklace with a big red serpent with green eyes.

The next couple of days passed quickly. At work, the murder of their leader shook the Versace family to its core. After the initial questioning about being at the scene of the crime Casey was left alone, and she did not encourage questions. Mike Segarra came over one day, and she wanted to tell him everything but did not. She withdrew from her friends and her family. She even stopped walking Dandy. She spent most of her time at home, sitting in the dark, dreaming, fantasizing, and desiring a big red serpent with green eyes.

One night she got out of bed. She dressed in black pants and a matching black shirt, and walked out the door, leaving behind her whimpering dog. It took ten minutes to reach the houseboat. The darkness was deep but Casey knew where she was going.

She burst in and yanked the necklace from the sleeping man on the sofa. As she turned he grabbed her ankle and dropped her to the floor. Consumed with madness and desire, they struggled back and forth, kicking, biting, and rolling on the bare floor. Then she saw the gun on the counter. She got up but he was faster.

"Give it to me."

"No." Casey held the necklace tight in her hand.

"Give it to me or I will shot."

"No." Casey held her hand out the window. "I'm going to drop it into the water."

"Nooooo…., " he screamed and ran toward her but Casey shook her hand and the Jewel of Fame was gone. Seeing her empty palm, the Floater screamed in agony, put the gun to his head and pressed the pistol.

As blood splattered on her black cloths, Casey stared at the dead man. Then she searched her pocket and took out the gold necklace with a big blue serpent and red eyes, the Jewel of Fame.

Silently thanking her father for teaching her magic tricks, she walked home in a daze, holding the necklace close to her heart. When she arrived home, she saw nothing but the trinket in her hands.

The first ray of light found Casey rocking back and forth on the floor, holding the jewel, and mumbling, "I'm famous, I'm famous." When Dandy came closer, Casey shoved the dog away, "I'm famous, you will see, everyone will see!"

Casey closed her eyes. In a second, Dandy ripped the necklace out of Casey's shaking hands and dashed into the bathroom. Screaming like a child who lost her candy, Casey saw the dog push down the handle.

As the Jewel of Fame disappeared into the swirl of the toilet, Casey realized how silly she was. To seek something that is true only to those who read supermarket tabloids to feed the emptiness of their lives was bordering insanity. What she wanted, what she envied in Gianni Versace was not his fame, or his fortune, but his love for textures, his quest for the perfect match of colors, his magic for turning cloth and wood into a fantasia of design. What Casey desired was not the false power of Oz but the Yellow Brick Road, the journey to seek, to explore, to share with those she loved.

The Border Collie seemed to nod in forgiveness and moved closer. Casey lovingly patted her dog and said, "Let's go for a walk, my best friend." She opened the front door and stepped out into the sunshine.

The ‘Change’ of Obama

2008-11-08T11:12:00.001-05:00

I've been busy. I was so busy at work and life in general that I hardly watched the news. I was tired of the endless speeches, the 'who said what and why', and I was really tired of the pettiness. Until I stood at the election booth – I had two choices, both were bad, and both were good. I can't say that I am happy with the outcome. I can't say I'm not.

Barak Obama is smart, poised, and a lot of good comes from America choosing an African-American as its President. He's also a socialist who believes in Big Government and high taxes, and a democrat who had never voted against his party. If Barak Obama has its way, America will become France, beautiful, erudite, but staid. Barak Obama is the American Dream - he is also the man who could destroy it with populism.

In the cult of Obama, Change is good. But Change is a conundrum. We know we don't like where we are. We know we don't like war. We know we have serious economic problems. We know that something must be done. But what? To the person on the street, giving money to Wall Street was a bad move, but liquidity breeds trust, and without trust there is no financial system. If history is any indication, the 700 billion bailout is the least bad step. Bailing out the car industry sounds like déjà vu, but if the money is geared toward building green cars then we will all benefit at the long run. Health care is a problem. McCain wants to rain costs; Obama wants to socialize medicine. And the list goes on and on. Good and bad, Change is here.

How the Democrats are Losing My Vote

2008-08-24T08:45:00.001-04:00

I feel robed.

I had high expectations for the 2008 election. This was to be the year that a centrist Democrat will return sanity to government. This was to be the year when America will regain focus on building its economy and avoiding the righteousness that come with the right's version of 'values'. And this was the year when a woman will be on the ticket.

None happened.

Instead the Democrats chose a populist who forayed into international relationship with an attack on Canada (NAFTA is bad!), who used too many words smelling of World War 2 appeasement (Talk to Iran!), and who has the experience of lecturing not governing (Sorry Obama but McCain celebrity ad hit a cord).

And now no woman at the top but yet another white male.

As much as I have a problem with many of McCain's opinions, at least he has a proven record of a rebel. For Obama, Change is only a slogan.

Florida’s Sugar-Everglades $1.75 Billion Deal in Context

2008-06-28T12:25:00.002-04:00

It is hot outside, and humid, but under the shaded perch of concrete with the fans blazing, surround by wickers of white and blue, and plants of all colors and sizes, and as the birds scrambling their saplings for their first flight, it is hard not to fall in love with Florida. But Florida today is not the Florida I first met eighteen years ago. There are cities in places where alligators once dwell, the suburbs are full with restaurants, and stores, and supermarkets, and so many, many people. To meet someone who was born here is an occasion worth celebrating.

The State Florida recently signed a contract to buy United States Sugar for $1.75 Billion. The deal allows water, held back by dams and irrigation, to flow south and essentially save the Everglades. It is a monumental environmental victory. But hold on a second. Florida has many budget problems, first and foremost in education. We're at the bottom of the list in test scores and other indicators. The deal is good for the environment but is it worth taking away $1.75 from education? Is a river of grass worth the education of our children?

Taken in a narrow context, the answer is no. Education should come first. But there is much more to the equation. Florida population grew, our supply of water did not. The deal doesn't only save the Everglades; it hedges the need for water against the draughts that plugged our water supply to dangerous levels.

The Everglades is at heart of Florida's history. Hot and humid as it is, this is a good day indeed.

In London for Business with the Undercover Economist

2008-06-13T08:22:00.002-04:00

London – There's something magical about traveling to London for business while reading the Undercover Economist. Tim Harford works for the Financial Times and the book explains economics in layman terms.

When Harford talks about 'What supermarkets don't want you to know', in which he explains how pricing serves as a communication device to create efficient free markets where no one could be better off without harming others, all I could think about was Tesco. In the last decade the supermarket chain grew from a follower to a leader, for a good reason. Tesco is the most customer-attuned retailer I know where technology goes hand in hand with business goals. The caliber of its people and that tightness of technology and business is the reason for Tesco's success. It should be admired, and emulated.

When Harford explains scarcity, all I could think about was Time. If I had to pinpoint one dictator of modern life it would be the lack of time. I almost never eat fast food. But at 8pm, when a long night of work awaited, Burger King sounded like a really good meal. And, brilliantly, I was delighted to pay the 6 pounds for their Angus Burger, a lot of money for the right food in the right time.

When Harford described the affects of the Green Belt on the cost of living in London (small space high real estate costs), all I could think about was the three hours it took to drive the 45 miles from Reading to downtown London. Sometimes I wish Americans would be as conscious about the environment as are the Britons, but sometimes I'm happy to be a gas-guzzling suburbanite with a large house and a water thirsty lawn.

London had a surprise for me. When you meet people for the first time - in a different corner of the world - and they tell you they had read the blog and they feel they know you, and of course they have something to say about what you wrote, it is an amazing feeling. Sometimes, the world indeed feels flat.

Ambivalent about Barak Obama

2008-06-04T07:10:00.004-04:00

Barak Obama clinched the Democratic nomination to President of the United States.

I love that Senator Obama is African-American. It is time. I hate that he 'stole' the election Hillary Clinton because I really, really wanted to see a woman in the White House.

I love that Senator Obama is charismatic, eloquent and intelligent. I hate that he is all talk and no experience. After all, the Senator never managed a big organization and doesn't have a political track record. Campaigning builds to Senator Obama's strength as orator, but the presidency needs an organizer and political hardness.

I love that Senator Obama objected to the war in Iraq when we were too busy being frightened after 9/11. I hate that he is stuck in the past and does not recognize the present circumstances. He ignores the realities of Iraq and wants to get out without understanding that a fast withdrawal today will make a bad problem worse.

I love that Senator Obama is not a Republican with a socially-righteous agenda and a good vs. evil point of view. I hate that he is a Democrat who believes in Big Government and against globalization. I'm always amazed that the far-left who hate Big Business do not recognize that government is the biggest monopoly of all. Worse, government is usually the last type of organization to adapt. Healthcare needs creative solutions, not a bigger bureaucracy.

I love that Senator Obama is loved the world. But what is good for our allies and enemies is not necessarily good for America. Soft foreign policy must be backed by the hard power of economics and military. It sounds great to negate cowboy diplomacy, but Obama's engagement ideology sounds too much like appeasement. If I have to describe Senator Obama's view of the world in one word it would be naïve.

I love that Senator Obama is young and energetic and talks about change. I hate that Obama's Change is rhetoric and not backed by actions. He is not John McCain, a true agent of change, a maverick who from fought for change in the political system for many years and is one of the stabilizing forces in the senate.

I'm glad for America that Senator Barak Obama won the nomination, but if the elections were held today I'll not vote for him.

Should we negotiate with Iran?

2008-05-22T09:02:00.005-04:00

Should we negotiate with terrorists? No.

Do Iran's leaders plan, finance and support terror operations? Yes.

Therefore should we negotiate with Iran? Yes and No. Yes, there are many ways to negotiate as our deal with Iran on Afghanistan shows. But No, the President of United States should not ask Iran's Ahmadinejad for breakfast in the White House.

I wonder if Senator Obama would be so self-righteous about Iran if instead of saying 'I want to destroy Israel' and 'the Holocaust did not exist' Ahmadinejad would have said 'I want to hang the niggers by the noose'. And if those words send a shiver down your spine then now you understand how I feel when Ahmadinejad bellows anti-Semite rhetoric.

Iran finances Hezbollah and Hamas, both nationalistic groups representing grieved populations (in Lebanon and Gaza respectively), both militant Islamic (Hezbollah is Shia but Hamas is Sunni), and both have a mission derived from political cunning – destroy Israel.

The best way to deal with Hezbollah is to let the Arab World take the lead. Lebanon is a microcosm of the power struggles in the Middle East and Western intervention such as the UN's UNIFIL had not done much. The best way to deal with Hamas is to think of it not as a terrorist group (they terrorize Israel but Gaza is a different story), not as a democratically elected government accounted to its people, but as a crime gang. And the best way to deal with Iran is to play sticks and carrots – punish them with UN sections for violating the nuclear agreements, pinpoint on the Republican Guard, but offer Iran (in a hush-hush manner) the financial incentives for some kind of status quo for no nuclear bombs and no terrorism.

The focus on diplomacy works as long as 'soft power' and 'hard power' (military and economic strength) go together. If Senator Obama thinks American diplomacy will solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict then he misunderstands Israel's peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, which were both done by strong leaders and well-defined national interests. The road to solving the conflict is not in sitting Israel's Olmert and Palestinians' Abbas to the table but changing the nature of their self-interest. And if Senator Obama thinks that Iran will mend its ways because he speaks nicely then he's naive.

Telling Iran's leaders that the President of United States would conduct direct diplomacy while Iran bluntly seeks a nuclear bomb and publicly threatens Israel is admitting capitulation, a no-no in a male dominated society.

As Senator Obama says, words matter!

Update: Tom Friedman, as usual, eloquently explains the issue: "When you have leverage, talk. When you don’t have leverage, get some. Then talk."

Why Politics 2008 are great for America?

2008-05-01T08:02:00.002-04:00

Everyone seems to be in a bad mood. The democrats bemoan of a contentious primary, the republicans bewail in indifference, the media is being... well....the media, and people on the street fear the high price of food and oil, but for America as a whole this is the best political season for a long time. We're finally asking ourselves some tough questions.

Obama brought fresh air to politics. Yet, if there is a lesson to be learned from the latest marry-go-round is that despite the call for Change, a good politician is a good politician, spinning and all. Finally the question of race is out there without the camouflage of a beating or a killing i.e. Rodney King and O.J Simpson. So yes, racism exists but it is not where it was. Many young people just don't care about color. They care about a dream. But dreams raise expectations. And that's Obama's downfall – reality tends to get in the way of dreams.

Many women want to see a woman in the White House, Hillary or not. Hillary's 'I don't quit' resonates so strongly with women that any attempt to take her out of the race by force is seen as unfair, even as a direct attack. My advice to the Democratic establishment – let it be. I already tasted bitterness when you ignored the Florida vote. There's something about Hillary.

The most interesting candidate is John McCain. He carries the Bush stigma and the burden of Iraq, but the McCain candidacy is primarily a challenge to the agreement between the religious right and the free market crowd to join forces in politics. If you're looking for a radical shift, that's the one. 2008 will test this tacit bond, and its failure would shake the political system at its core.

Are there really Two Americas? Yes and no. Yes in the sense that the urban, education driven, always-on life is different than the rural, get up at 4am to farm, go to church every Sunday, small town life. No in the sense that it is still relatively easy (compare to other countries) to move up the social, educational and financial scale. I think the new wave of mobile gadgets and the awareness of 'living green' will shift some of the educated back to rural settings. In a decade, America will be a different America yet once again.

Behind the character debate sit the issues. Immigration is currently mute but will probably erupt since it tackles issues such as security and globalization. Healthcare is a biggie, but the democrats call for more government falls flat on the ears of those who just had to deal with the IRS. Ending the war in Iraq is not a question of 'if' but 'when' and 'how'. As prices rise, the call to 'do something' grows louder. But again, watching Congress, the idea of the White Knight of Government scares me more.

At least the allure of going green due to global warming and the pain the pump due to high oil prices is shaking people out of complacency. So, can we talk now about energy policy?

What I learned in Algonkian Writer Conferences from Paige Wheeler, Robert Bausch and Michael Neff

2008-04-17T06:10:00.006-04:00

The Algonkian writer conferences teach advance writers what they need to get published. During the week we worked on pitches, story lines, and the craft of writing. Michael Neff did a fantastic job of winnowing the applicants and our group bonded, cried, laughed, ate, drank and wrote. The workshop had many benefits because Patrick, Craig, Mona, Dianne, Ann, Kate, Giana, Jo, Katie, Jennifer and Donna were great people and skilled writers.

Publishing is first and foremost a Business

Throughout the week, Michael hammered that publishing is a business. For me the point did not sink until Paige Wheeler explained that the reason publishers gear towards 90,000 words thriller instead of 100,000 words because it costs less to ship. Think about it - the way books are shipped impacts the words count, wow!

In contrast to other writing conferences, Michael teaches writing for publication, and he does not mince words. He probed and questioned stories and narratives. He gave us tightly scripted exercises to challenge the imagination and skill. He tackled assumptions and beliefs. And he dozed with stories of the real world. Luckily, under the gruff exterior was a warm heart who wants to help. The trick was listening and understanding, even if sometimes we didn't agree… yes Michael but…

Also, if there was a lesson to be learned from Robert Bausch misfortunes (he wrote the book that inspired the movie Bruce Almighty but didn't get paid) is that a good agent makes the difference between getting paid or not. A great agent will increase the money pie.

Agents and Writers

Finding an agent is like finding a husband (or a spouse if you want to be politically correct). It's hard, time-consuming and basically a mystery. If I had to describe the process in one word, I'd say it is all about timing. Paige Wheeler had a baby six weeks ago and she's ready to start the process of adopting new writers. But the odds are hard to swallow. Last year she took 4 people of a slash pile of 500 queries a week! On the other hand, publishing is a small world and those of us who have been around for a while have similar stories about the same agents. A rude and obnoxious individual carries fame just as the good ones do. Publishing is full of charlatans, so be patient. If your work is publishable, it will be picked up.

A publishable work must have a catchy high-concept pitch. Okay, okay, don't jump. I was skeptical at the notion that the value of six years worth of work depends on one sentence, but after listing the high concepts of 30 books and reading the New York Times and Washington Post book reviews, I must admit that there is something magical in the log line. A good sentence tells the publisher how to position the book (i.e. thriller or novel). More important, the log line stirs readers into picking up a book from an unknown author. Despite the eyebrows, high-concept works for readers. So swallow your pride and ask yourself if your story has a catchy log line. If you don't (in my case, Paige says that anything that has to do with dot com or computers as humans is trite), go back to the drawing board and find another story.

Writing is a profession with rules that beginning writers must follow. Take a look at the bestsellers and see that there's no debate over the first five pages or pushing the action forward or creating sympathy for the protagonist. However, publishing is also subjective. For example, Michael hated my title for a work of fiction, Paige loved it. As a result, I may have a new book in a couple of months but my title stays as Surfing on Silicon Waves.

Tidbits of from the Craft of Writing

Another eye opening experience came from the writing exercises. Take 12 writers, give specific characters, settings, conflict and a technique, and put them under a tight schedule, and you will get 12 different stories, with different tones and styles. Amazing! I didn't believe it until I heard it – each writer has a unique style. In other words, imitation simply doesn't work. For me, some of the jargon was new but I was already using many of the techniques. For example, my dialog scene was energetic because I pay attention to the tags lines (and writers should know about tags lines).

Robert Bausch solved my antagonist problem. I love my characters. I hate my antagonist and I could not figure out how to write him. I don't think the way he does. I disagree with everything he stands for. How to write from a bad guy point of view? Simple, Bausch said, the bad guy doesn't change. Contrary to the protagonist who must change from the beginning to the end of the book, the antagonist may change tactics but he cannot change in nature. In Surfing, the bad guy is narcissistic. His badness results from a narcissistic point of view in the beginning, middle and end. Bingo, problem solved. As Donna said to me, such insight was worth the whole workshop.

The Craft versus Getting Published

Are writers made or born? Can MFA programs manufacture authors? Will self-publishing continue to be a death knell? Those questions haunt the business and serve as a good jumping point for an interesting debate. Michael believes a publishable manuscript will get published. I agree. As in any profession, the rules emerge from experience. The first five pages are important not because the publisher said so but because the readers stop reading if they don't care about the protagonist by page five.

My opinion - writing is a craft; storytelling is an art. Enjoy the process, otherwise you will breakdown.

Most Writers Don't Make It

Most writers don't make it because they give up. Writing for publication is a profession; it takes time and maturity. I may not be a published writer (yet!) but I'm a better writer today than I was a year ago, and I'm significantly better than three years ago. Paige said most writers were picked up after their fifth project! Michael told us that a good reader is worth two or three years of work, and his comments on my story were dead on. Only 0.01% of aspiring writers are published. With such odds, the only difference between good writers and published authors is tenacity.

On Saturday morning, I more or less decided that I'm done with this merry go around. On Saturday night, the girls pounded on me and I changed my mind. On Sunday morning, I was utterly confused. By Monday, I started fixing my book. Surfing stands today at 108,000 words. On the airplane ride back to Florida, I realized that if I move the action scenes forward and cut the fat from the story, I end up around 90,000 words. Now that was an eye opening exercise.

I went to Algonkian thinking I have a great story and I'm a so-so writer. I came out knowing I have a lousy story but I'm a good enough writer to be a published author. So I'm back into planning, writing and revising. As the gals of cabin 6 would say, "Go get them, Saccharine Posy!"

The Battle Cry of Print-On-Demand

2008-04-01T08:02:00.009-04:00

Just when I thought publishing could not get more interesting, Amazon launches the next salvo in the Print-On-Demand (POD) war. Now if you want to sell a POD book on Amazon, you need to use the company's printing services. It means that if you self-publish in Lulu or you're a small publisher, you can no longer wait for an order, print and ship to Amazon. It means that an Amazon customer is an Amazon customer, not only in retail but also in publishing.

Publishing is a complicated business where publishers, distributors, retailers, agents, writers and readers compete and cooperate. Yes, everyone has the same interest – to read better books. But the business of reading is rife with conflicts of interest. Publishers make money on best-selling books. Distributors save by shipping in bulk. Retails are mostly in trouble. Agents need the writers to pay the bills but the publishers to survive. Writers just want to eat. And readers are simple time-short.

Amazon says the customer comes first and POD on site saves time and money. The publishers view the policy as an insidious way to chop down their control and profits. Most writers are just happy when someone buys their book. Between being the first website to successfully sell books, and then the first company to build a popular e-Book reader, I'd say Amazon's way is here to stay.

And if you want to learn more about the impact of technology on the publishing business, check out Joe Wilkert blog. Books as a form of complex storytelling are not going to disappear, but the selling and reading platforms are already evolving from the paper-bound to the digital. And the evolution is only beginning.

Update: According to the Times online, the Society of Authors believes that "Internet book piracy will drive authors to stop writing", but if you look at the comments most authors say otherwise. If there something writers would like is for the publishing industry to avoid the pitfalls of music and find a new business model, fast.

Update: Follow the music..the virtual store Apple's iTune now sells more music than Wal-Mart.

Self-Interest and the Rule of Law

2008-03-18T09:30:00.003-04:00

According to the Economist, in the last decade the rule of law has become "the motherhood and apple pie of development economics". As a political idea the Rule of Law is widely accepted, but as an economic concept it replaced the crumbling "Washington Consensus" after the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Since then the emphasis shifted from policies to institutions. In other words, the trick is not the strategy but the rules of the game.

The stakes are huge. The World Bank considers it the 300% dividend – in the long run, a country's income per head rises by roughly 300% if it improves its governance by one standard deviation. It is the different between Spain and South Africa, or Chile and India. However, it is not been proven that the Rule of Law is a precondition to growth.

The problem is in the definition - does the rule of law "defends human rights or guarantees property rights?" Moreover, does growth helps the rule of law, or is it the other way around. And the real puzzle is to explain the success of crony capitalism in Asia or Russia. As the Economist notes "... the more economists find out about the rule of law, the more desirable it seems – and the more problematic as a universal economic guide."

It seems to me the problem is not in the definition of the Rule of Law but of Economics. Money is a consistent and transparent way to establish relationship among individuals and societies. People are motivated by self-interest and economics frames the incentives.

Two things work to the advantage of crony capitalism. First, if the country has natural resources than the economic output doesn't require much input and therefore it is easier for the insiders to take more than their fair share. There is simply enough wealth to spill over and pacify the poor. A push for talent is not a necessity. Second, if the country has a history of bowing to authority, than the culture impedes not only the push for democracy but also the fight against corruption. In a sense, the poor accepts that the rich have the right to be rich because they have always been in a position of authority.

Therefore, if economics is a system of incentives and there are no strong motivations to fight the political apparatus than the Rule of Law as defined by the Insiders will bring economic growth. And it will last until something changes, either in the commodities markets or in the political will.

What is a Business Mystery?

2008-03-12T11:39:00.012-04:00

Like many other industries, publishing is searching for the Next Big Idea. However, if the Idea requires imagination and some chutzpha, people buck out. That's the story of Surfing on Silicon Waves. No one understands how to sell a Business Mystery.

Publishing subdivides between fiction and non-fiction. Fiction is an imaginary narrative. Non-fiction is the book format of data told by an 'expert'. Lately the emphasis on narrative seeped into non-fiction from memoirs to popular science. Even business books are littered with narratives such as Rich Dad Poor Dad and The World is Flat.

On the same token, business found its way into fiction. A good example is Joseph Finder corporate thrillers where the setting is business. While the story deals with an industry or a company and a gun is involved, there's no discussion over a business issue. Joseph Finder writes thrillers with a business background, that's it.

A Business Mystery is a different beast. First it is fiction, specifically a mystery. Second it deals with a business topic, dilemma or strategy. Think a CEO that follows the rules of Good to Great. Think a plot that exemplifies the Wisdom of the Crowds or the Tipping Point.

As a business book, Surfing challenges the notion of Rationality. As the story progresses, each scene is accompanied by a relevant theory, from supply and demand to positive feedback. And I offer a new theory of choice dubbed as Reciprocity.

I first thought of Surfing as Business Thriller, but thrillers focus on action and imminent danger. It sounds great but in real life the dilemmas of business are mostly tactical and strategic. Mysteries focus on solving the crime.

In a business mystery, the crime is not that someone killed someone but that someone violated the rules. The bad guy created a business dilemma that the protagonist must solve. In Surfing the story follows the Internet Bubble and the predicaments of choice.

Surfing is good enough to be sold as a simple mystery. The story is enticing, the plot surprising and the characters interesting. However, if I took out the economic, business, software and philosophy annotations, Surfing's uniqueness would disappear. It would no longer be a Big Idea.

The Expert versus the Amateur

2008-03-10T10:27:00.003-04:00

"Is User-Generated content is out?" Newsweek asks. Are we witnessing the return of experts? Is the Cult of the Amateur over and the Wisdom of the Crowds a myth? According to Terry Heaton, no such war exists. "That defection is more illustrative of the failure of traditional, institutional media than anything else, along with the arrogance-gone-to-seed of anyone claiming exclusive access to "truth."

We can rephrase the debate by asking – can we trust the source? If you read the NY Times, you should expect a liberal bias, although the opinion pages do their best to provide both sides. If you read an interesting article in the Christian Science Monitor or the National Review, it doesn't mean they're wrong or bad journalism but they do have a historical point of view. If you read a blog by Guy Kawasaki because he offers marketing insights, it doesn't mean that he won't try to plug his companies.

Moreover, if you're influential does that mean you're an expert? Is Andrew Sullivan an expert? What makes Instapundit such a popular blog despite the fact it has almost no original content.

We can also rephrase the question as - how much expertise worth? If you're a professional statistician than a Wikipedia entry would not help that much. But if had learned statistics and 15-20 years later a need arises than the Wikipedia entry is helpful, simply because it refreshes and guides.

In the realm of specialized knowledge only experts can judge other experts. But by opening the door, experts that are not part of the organization that created the information have the option to analyze the original data and comment. In other words, benefits arise when the mob becomes the expert.

The Campaigns of Feel Good, Don’t Give up, and Find Victory

2008-03-08T08:21:00.005-05:00

The 2008 presidential campaign is historical in many ways. For the first time an African-American and a woman have a good chance to be President. But the campaign is more than the candidates; it is also about what Americans see in the mirror.

I love that fact that Barak Obama exists. I love who he is. I love that he is fighting the rhetoric of blame and hate. Barak Obama feels good.

Until I actually listen to what he says.

Hillary sounds like a preacher, but Obama actually does. He lectures about working together, but when he picks up a fight, he lets loose on Canada. Canada!

If there is anything to learn from the latest brouhaha is that the other side always feels like a 'monster'. Demonizing the enemy is human nature. The trick is in the perceptions of a fair fight.

Hillary Clinton's message of 'I don't give up' resonates. It shows determination, tenacity, steel and a healthy dose of chutzpah – too bad they are a warrior traits and Hillary Clinton happens to be a woman and a democrat.

I - and I suspect most Americans - want to vote Democrat. I'm tired of social conservatism and the politics of fear. I want Change!

But I don't want government intervention and business bashing and more taxes. I want pragmatism, not idealism. I want socially conscience programs that won't bankrupt the future. Oh and there is that voting mess in Florida. In their rhetoric, the Democrats are loosing my vote.

If there is a true agent of change in this race it is John McCain. He has the history of a political rebel from political funding to bipartisanship. Many Democrats actually like him. Sadly, he's an old, white man with a temper and a Republican.

In a time when the economy is in trouble, the song of 'war against terror' sounds out of date. The problem with Iraq today is not why we went in but rather should we stay and for how long. To most of the world, and especially in the Middle East, the Iraq War smacks of imperialism. So what exactly are we winning? The Iraqi oil fields. A Democracy kidnapped by Islamic Fundamentalists. What? If McCain has a good answer, he will win. Otherwise, he won't.

So that's the choice. Barak Obama for feeling good but fighting with friends and cowing to enemies. Hillary Clinton for not giving up but not elevating either. And John McCain for an aging rebel leading the strayed. It least the campaign is interesting. Now that is Change.

The Sad Saga of 3Com

2008-02-23T13:10:00.005-05:00

Recently, concerns over national security prevented the sale of 3Com to private capital and a Chinese company for $2.2 Billion. Reading the WSJ article brought back memories both happy and sad.

I worked in 3Com as a sales analyst back in 1998. It was the same time that Fortune listed 3Com as one of the top places to work for and a friend was fired in conference call. It was the same time that 3Com a $5-6 Billion company and a respected rival to Cisco fell apart. In many ways, that year in 3Com served as my inspiration for Surfing on Silicon Waves.

Here's what happened. One of my tasks was to put together the data from the commission system into a financial format. The commission system used by 3Com at the time was a patchwork of programming and a decision was made to buy and customize a top notch commission software package. Sadly, after a year the new system was still far away and the old system suffered from a lack of proper attention as both the financial manager and the information system manager left 3Com. The new managers were trained on the new system that so far was not working and the sales force was paid on forecasts not actual sales. After six months, it was time to check forecast against actual. The numbers smelled wrong.

Meanwhile, Cisco was busting 3Com in the market place and people started to defect. Confidence was eroding. When the rumors starting floating around that the sales force was overpaid and the sales numbers were wrong, it had a vicious affect on moral.

To cut a long story short, the culprit was a minor (really minor) programming slip that miscalculated a formula. I don't remember what it was exactly but I do remember it was a plus instead of a minus, or maybe a minus instead of a plus. Either way, the programming error was minute; the affect on 3Com was devastating

Was there wrongdoing? No. Was there negligence? A tiny bit, but no, not really. Top management had made a good decision to acquire the new commission system. There was quibbling among the finance managers but no more then the common office politics. The failure was caused by a confluence of events.

You might say that 3Com fell apart because a plus turned minus, literally.

Software As Service

2008-02-22T13:22:00.005-05:00

Surfing on Silicon Waves deals the business of software. One of the most pronounced trends in software is the move away from selling 'engines' to the hybrid of developing software but selling services and solutions. I dubbed that trend Software As Service.

I was catching up on my blog feeds when I stumbled on a post from Jonathan Schwartz, CEO of Sun Microsystems, that beautifully describes the business forces behind Software As Service.

Not a single company in the CTO (Chief Technology Officer – RM) room paid for software…. In contrast, not a single company in the CIO (Chief Information Officer – RM) room allowed free software without a commercial support contract. Not one.

Microsoft Goes (Slightly) Open

2008-02-22T08:17:00.002-05:00

Six years ago, when I started writing about the travails of my fictional CEO of the Big Company, James Vermont, to step away from a proprietary strategy into a hybrid of services and openness, no one would have believed me that was based on what I thought would happen to Microsoft. Well, it did. Microsoft today announced it is going (slightly) open.

Microsoft announced a set of broad-reaching changes to its technology and business practices …These changes are codified into four new interoperability principles and corresponding actions: 1) ensuring open connections; 2) promoting data portability; 3) enhancing support for industry standards; and 4) fostering more open engagement with customers and the industry, including open source communities.

In retrospect Microsoft's move is obvious. The Internet is just too big and too porous to control. Web 1.0 strategies of dominating the gateways (i.e. AOL) didn't work in the collaborative Web 2.0. Will the business model of organizing information (Google) continue to thrive once we move the Semantic Web of tagged data remains to be seen. In a complex ecosystem such as the Internet, standards create order, and standards emerge from cooperation.

In Surfing on Silicon Waves, James Vermont takes the Internet one step forward. He accepts the notion that by moving away from Alan Turing's computing into the more chaotic reciprocal problems (problems solved as probabilities), the World Wide Web became intelligent.

Is this Fidel Castro Last Act?

2008-02-19T15:56:00.005-05:00

Fidel Castro resigned as Cuba's President, but…

Mr. Castro also made it clear he is not fading into the sunset but pledged to continue to be a force in Cuban politics through his writings, just as he has over the last year and a half. "I am not saying goodbye to you," he wrote. "I only wish to fight as a soldier of ideas." (NY Times)

What are Castro's ideas? Cuba flaunts its universal healthcare but most Cubans are poor and the economy depends on commodities. Now that Communism proved as a defunct economical model and most people recognize it not as the champion of equality but rather as an excuse for a dictatorship, the only idea Fidel Castro successfully promotes is his Anti-Americanism.

Ten years ago, I was at a party where a heated discussion erupted between twenty-something and forty-something Cubans. While the younger generation favored the cancelation of economic sanctions, their older compatriots said no way, not as long as Castro is in power. The arguments centered on whether we should punish Fidel Castro or help the Cuban people.

But the debate had a deeper undertone – should we punish a dictator and therefore the people he controls, or should we bow to a dictator in the hope that we can ease the suffering? Sadly, there are no good answers.

During the Elian Gonzales episode, I got stuck in the middle of a very excited crowd at Little Havana. I don't feel such enthusiasm today. Maybe that's good. Maybe the best response is to shrug it off. Maybe the best course of action is to wait and see where the Cubans take Cuba.

Sony Wins the High-Definition Movie Format War

2008-02-19T13:35:00.003-05:00

Toshiba formally bowed to Sony's victory in the High-Definition Movie format war by announcing the withdrawal of its HD DVD from the market. Sony's Blu-ray wins.

How did Sony win? In Information Rules, Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian explain that "Standard wars are unique to network markets with powerful positive feedback." To win, they say, a company depends on seven key assets: 1) Control over an installed base of users. 2) Intellectual property rights. 3) Ability to innovate. 4) First-mover advantage. 5) Manufacturing abilities. 6) Strength in complements, and 7) Brand name and reputation.

The market for HD movies ranges from DVD players ruled by retailers, movie formats set by the studios, and game consoles. In the DVD arena, for two years most retailers offered both formats, hence the sales numbers evened out around a million DVDs per format. The movie studios were divided with 75% favoring Sony's Blu-ray, but Toshiba held on with Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks. But in game consoles, Sony's PlayStation dominance trounced Microsoft's X-Box HD DVD format. The avalanche started with Best Buy and Netflix. It ended when Wal-Mart, the granddaddy of DVD players, said it would phase out HD DVD and offer only movies in the Blu-ray format.

Why now? This is the most interesting aspect of the story – the need to choose a winner quickly emerges from the realization that DVD may be a dying industry. Although bandwidth is still a major obstacle, many expect the migration to downloaded movies. Retailers wanted to end the DVD war so they can focus on the next frontier.

In Surfing on Silicon Waves, a fictional standard war exists in network communication protocols, between the proprietary Referential Directory and the open-source Q Comm. In the real world, TCP/IP has long been the Internet standard, but you get the idea.

The (Fictional) Flexoid Web

2008-02-18T14:14:00.003-05:00

In 11 Things to Know about Semantic Web, Bernard Lunn explains that Web 3.0 is "the combination of Web 2.0 mass collaboration with structured databases". In the Semantic Web, we will move away from relational databases that input and output data in set structures into databases individually organized using global standards.

Lunn remarks that relational databases were "good for enterprise scale performance and reliability but for Internet scale it falls short…. Don't look for the killer application. This implies a client/consumer win. This is much more likely to be a server/platform/enterprise win." In my fictional world, this is a point driven home by the dilemma facing the CEO of America Computer Technologies (ACT), James Vermont.

Moreover in Surfing on Silicon Waves, I take the Semantic Web one step further. In essence, the Flexoid Web is the Semantic Web that solves problems by probabilities.

What is Surfing on Silicon Waves?

2008-02-18T08:30:00.002-05:00

Surfing on Silicon Waves is a business mystery.

Surfing unlocks the mystery behind business, specifically the business of software. It challenges the idea of Rationality and offers an alternate theory of Choice. Setting the Internet Bubble as the background, I show that economics is the mathematics of social affairs. And I assume that if the Computation Theory of the Mind declares that our brains process information using symbols, then we can analyze software as a mirror to society.

Surfing is also a mystery about business, in particular about Silicon Valley. Using the heydays of the Internet Bubble as backdrop, Surfing is a story about choice, courage and commitment. Like Alice in Wonderland, when Mica Thomas arrives in Silicon Valley she confronts a human-like software program, people who run fast but do not reach anywhere, the hyperbole of technology and business, and the kings of the Golden Guild.

Words Matter

2008-02-17T11:57:00.009-05:00

In a response to Senator Clinton's recent attack on wooing voters by speeches not experience, Senator Obama responded that words matter. I agree, words matter, especially in politics.

There are undercurrents of race and gender in this campaign. Just as many African-Americans were offended by the Clintons comments on Martin Luther King, I view the visceral hatred of Hillary Clinton by some as a direct attack against the notion that a woman has the right, and the skills, to be Commander in Chief.

Senator Obama is intelligent and aspiring, but as he does not have a track record in governance, the only way I can judge him is by the policies he promotes. I don't like what I found.

As an independent, the ideas of Government as Savior, Avoid Globalization, and Foreign Policy of Appeasement are, in my opinion, wrong.

In particular, I was stunned to see in the NY Times policy tracker what Senator Obama thinks about Iran.

"I would meet directly with Iranian leaders. I would meet directly with Syrian leaders. We would engage in a level of aggressive personal diplomacy in which a whole host of issues are on the table. ... Iran and Syria would start changing their behavior if they started seeing that they had some incentives to do so, but right now the only incentive that exists is our president suggesting that if you do what we tell you, we may not blow you up."

Senator Obama will meet with the Iranian President who denies the Holocaust and wants to destroy Israel?

Diplomacy is an important tool of politics, and yes, I would like to have World Peace, but by agreeing to meet the Iranian President with no preconditions, in essence, Senator Obama is giving legitimacy to such words. Moreover, Senator Obama shows he does not understand the complexities of the Middle East.

Iran pursues Nuclear Weapons (Iran stopped work on enrichment not delivery weapons) not because of the Great Satan or the Zionists, but because of a rat race between the Islamists and the Republican Guard within Iran and against the Sunnis in the greater Middle East. Syria has a dictator fighting for his life. Neither Iran nor Syria has a problem with threats as long as we don't follow them. Our best course of action is global economic sanctions directed against specific groups and individuals. That requires diplomacy and, yes, some threats.

If words matter, why would Senator Obama legitimize the denial of the Holocaust and the destruction of Israel?

Update: As David Brooks of the NY Times writes beautifully in his column "When the Magic Fades":

The Gang of 14 created bipartisan unity on judges, but Obama sat it out. Kennedy and McCain created a bipartisan deal on immigration. Obama opted out of the parts that displeased the unions. Sixty-eight senators supported a bipartisan deal on FISA. Obama voted no. And if he were president now, how would the High Deacon of Unity heal the breach that split the House last week?

The Turtle, the Rabbit and the Hare

2008-02-05T09:27:00.001-05:00

Even the NY Times understood that if Google is trying to spoil the shotgun marriage between Microsoft and Yahoo it is a story worthy of the front page. But what does this episode tell us about the world we live in?

First, in the information era the challenge is standing up above the noise. That's what Google does so well – allows us to find what we want to find, fast. The Internet is a disorganized and distributed kingdom of data and Google rules it since most users know its name and the searches (most of the time) make sense. In other words, in an open world, positive feedback forces make a strong brand name stronger.

Google runs fast as a hare leaving the others behind, but for how long? If the past is any indication, as long as the fundamentals of the game don't change, Google's lead in search would grow.

Second, what you don't know is much more than what you do know. Knowledge Workers need data to survive and thrive, and that means expertise, diversity, and constant learning, all requiring an eco-system of information. That's what Yahoo has done brilliantly – from personal finance to small business data centers, the company serves us what we need to know.

Yahoo is the rabbit that jumps up and disappears out of side as fast as it arrives on the scene. But even if the rabbits are not apparent, they are still around, and they multiply like crazy. If we look at the full spectrum of web services, Google may have the search and the You Tube video, but Yahoo has email and pictures and business services. They may not be on everyone's lips, but Yahoo is at the core of what the Internet can offer.

Third, don't judge the whole by its part. Microsoft did everything it could to hold on to its monopoly in operating systems for personal computers. It dominates, not controls, the edges of Enterprise Computing, and it has but a foothold in the large server farms. Point is, computing is an eco-system with third-party developers, resellers and distributors, and of course users, and the Internet the largest computing eco-system of all. The path to success on the Internet is collaboration because you cannot control the doors but you can control the data flow.

Online and in web services, Microsoft is the turtle, slow but ever present. They want Yahoo because search leads to advertising, which is the only business model that proved it works.

So is it a good deal, and for whom? For Yahoo, the feedback sounds like a moral boost. For Microsoft, it is back to a dominant position they know and crave. For Google, it is a chance to stir the attention from the new 'bad guy' on the block. And the government will have a chance, once more, to define the markets.

And the winner? Hares win the short sprints, but in the long run and in a continuous play even turtles can win the race. Turtles simply live longer.

The Stimulus Dilemma

2008-01-31T13:02:00.001-05:00

In an op-ed in the NY Times, Nicholas Epley from the Chicago School of Business said if the government wanted people to spend than the much-discussed stimulus package should be called Bonus not Rebate. But Epley missed the deeper point – the Rebate name distorts the true nature of the stimulus package, taking away from the taxes paid by the rich and the middle class, and giving it to the poor who did not pay taxes. The stimulus package is glaringly redistributive.

Now, I'm not condemning the government's actions. On the contrary, the rational of giving the money to those would most likely spend it is a good one. For the middle-class, the money is a nice rebate. But for the poor, the money is truly a Bonus.

So, yes, using the word Bonus instead of Rebate will encourage spending, but it will also be a more accurate description of the stimulus package. However, it would not be smart politics.

2Million had spoken NOT!

2008-01-30T14:19:00.001-05:00

The Florida primary has come and gone. John McCain tromped Romney, Giuliani withdrew, and Florida reset the Republican Party to a two people race before Super Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton blazed Barak Obama. But the party that proudly claimed to be the People's Party had also pompously declared it would disregard and ignore its two million plus members, all in the name of Command and Control by the Party.

The People's Party indeed!

My vote doesn’t count

2008-01-29T11:10:00.001-05:00

Today is voting day in Florida, but registered independents do not have the right to vote in the primaries. To make matters worse, if I was a registered democrat and wanted to participate in the historic vote for a woman or an African-American, my vote also does not count because the name of the game is delegates, not votes. To say that I'm unhappy is an understatement.

Therefore I'm protesting by signing the Draft Michael Bloomberg for President. I don't know where he stands on each issue, but I think he is a centrist who believes in individual freedom and responsibility and in 21^st Century social values, just like me.

Someone told me that the current political system was considered a jumping board to the more representative forms prevalent in Europe. We got stuck in an Old World, two-party system. Isn't it time to challenge the political gerrymandering? Grow up America!

Was the book worth it?

2008-01-29T10:43:00.001-05:00

I wrote a book and it took six years. Surfing on Silicon Waves is done and the first set of queries is out. Friends and family had read older drafts, even significant parts of the final version, but no one has yet to read the whole book from beginning to end. So, is it appropriate to ask myself, in such public way, was it worth it?

And does it matter if the book sells or not? Surfing may end up as just one book among many. It could also be a dismal failure or a bestseller. To answer such a question before feedback is to look at the mirror and ask – if you knew all you had to go through, all the sacrifices, without knowing whether the investment would bear fruits, was it still worth it?

The answer is yes, it was worth it. And no, it doesn't matter what the future holds.

Let me explain.

The costs, both financial and emotional – dealing with the naysayers and detractors – are huge. But the sense of accomplishment, of achieving the impossible, is beyond anything that I imagined. I'm dyslexic, but I didn't know that until eight years ago. I spend a lifetime, including two university stints for the BA and MBA, hiding the terrible secret that I could hardly read, and in six years, I learned how to write, and I wrote a book that I love. So yes, it was worth it.

And the future? Sure, I'd love a stellar writing career, and yes more books are rummaging my mind, but whether Surfing is a hit or not have nothing to do with me. I have done the best writing that I could do today. From this point, I could only change, not improve, the book. Now it is a matter of being in the right time at the right place. Surfing is a business mystery. It tackles two very different audiences: the leisure reader who devours mysteries and the hurried executive who searches for strategic soundbites. Will it work? I think so, but only time will tell. So no, it doesn't matter what the future holds because what I need is luck.

Surfing is dedicated to the memory of three people. One of them is Jordie Kaplan who once told me that the only criterion to life was will I ever forgive myself if I didn't try. Jordie wanted to be an astronaut. I wanted to write a book. He died in a plane accident. I'm still alive, and kicking. I knew I would never forgive myself if I didn't try, so I did, and it was worth it.

Miami Book Fair 2007

2007-11-13T18:13:00.000-05:00

And yet another year passed and the Miami Book Fair was upon us. As usual, it sizzled with celebrities, authors and spectators. I saw three sessions on Saturday. First was the Critics Forum with Jed Perl, art critic of the New Republic, Alex Ross, music critic of the New Yorker and Philip Lopate on film and essays. Despite the different expertise, they agreed that a critic should present creativity in context. It is hard to sport the tectonic shifts, as Lopate said, but something good stays with you, added Jed Perl. All three critics acknowledged the Internet, but while Lopate focused on the amount of bad reviews, the younger Alex Ross loved the amount of details shared by blogging composers.

Next were the crime writers. Nick Stone talked about Haiti. Joseph Finder confided how he started writing (CIA, Stalin and a communist CEO). Greg Iles just sparkled. He doesn’t do series, formulas and is actually thinking of doing something else - don’t stop writing, a woman yelled, and I concur! And Ridely Pearson made us laugh with stories on Sun Valley Idaho and the local Sheriff Walt Fleming who has to deal with a battalion of the security guards of the rich and famous.

A note to aspiring writers. Greg Iles said about his first book that he decided to close himself in the library for a year. He ended with a 260,000 words manuscript. He sent 10 queries, got 2 positive responses, had 1 agent and an action. The book landed on the best seller lists. Lucky, but it can happen.

Mark Halperin was the following session. He wrote The Undecided Voter Guide to the Next President. Eloquent, knowledgeable and highly persuasive, Halperin said the candidates are one of the more diversified, and interesting, group of people. Apparently we were and still are a divided country. Good. It means we’re still thinking, and most important, we still care.

I missed the intriguing M.J Rose (who got a star review for The Reincarnationist) and the funny Rhonda Pollero, both whom I met in Thriller Fest.

Till next year.

What I Learned In CraftFest

2007-07-29T10:01:00.000-04:00

ThrillerFest is the annual gathering of thriller writers, which this year spurted in the hub of publishing, New York. While ThrillerFest gears to readers, CraftFest is the writer’s day and this is what I learned.

David Morrell asked us why we want to be writers, and if the answer includes the words ‘crazy’ or ‘addicted’ than you’d fit right in. Morrell spoke about emotion as the primary mover. He uses self-conversation, instead of an outline, to understand not only the plot but also the voice and the character. As free books are perks of ThrillerFest, and as I loved the Brotherhood of the Rose, I was ecstatic when Morrell handed me his Lessons from a Lifetime of Writing.

James Rollins drilled us on the thrill of the thriller. He talked about hooks, and first lines, and plots, but most memorable, and funny, were his comments about agents. Agents are lazy, he said. Agents make money from clients, not queries, so, limit the opportunity for no. Finish the book, than send 1-page query, 2-page summery and the first 50-pages. Without a sample, how else will the agent know how well you write?

David Hagberg, another South Floridian, talked about plot in the frame of PPE-C-KISS: People, Place, Event- Conflict - Keep It Simple Stupid! To keep a scene simple, write 1-person point of view, 1-event and 1-place. Conflict connects it all.

Lisa Gardner gave a detailed and analytical review on the outer and inner facets of character development, and Rhonda Pollero laughed out loud on pacing.

I missed Vince Flynn talk on self-publishing, but I understand it was depressing. Flynn wrote a book, hired an editor, than another editor, set up a group of investors, and eventually made enough sales as a local writer to be noticed. As M.J. Rose, who spoke about marketing on the Internet, explained, the problem is distribution. Publishers offer a distribution channel, such as libraries, B&N, Borders and airport bookstores.

Lunch with Agents was as I expected, informative, important and hurried. After a bit of digging in the posted invitee list, and asking for the seating assignment as I walked in, I sat at the table with Dan Conway of Writer’s House. Despite the overwhelming noise, Dan was great. He spoke about his life, answered questions, and talked privately with each one in our table. Sadly, there was no time or opportunity to talk with more agents, but I recognized some of the nametags: Peter Rubie, Bill Contardi, Evan Marshall, Jonathan Lyons and Anne Hawkins.

Surprises were abundant and people were fun, and helpful. Carol Fitzgerald of Bookreporter. Random House party. Chit chats at the bar. Overall, the conference was well planned and well done.

Was CraftFest worth it? Absolutely. I wanted to see how publishing works and I did. I wanted to meet an agent and I did. I wanted to meet some writers and I did. And, as CraftFest geared to writers, I learned more than I had expected. Someone said that it takes 10 years to learn the craft and another 5 years to sell a book, well, CraftFest took me one step closer.

Walls of Life and War

2007-06-28T07:45:00.000-04:00

Walls of Life, and War, tiptoed in history
Subjects of worship. Sentinels of conflict.
The Great Wall of China stopped barbaric invaders
The Iron East barred freedom-seeking evaders.
And the Holocaust barricades of heartless men
Invoked the Dream, of never, ever, ever, again.

To the land of lost temples our parents escaped
Where swamps, and flies, the landscape shaped.
To the land of the believers, herders, and crusaders
Six centuries of kingdoms, and the wreckage of raiders.
Of a civilization exiled, the ancient stones tell a tale
To a lone Western Wall, to God, our sorrow, we wail.

Born in blood, a state arose, amid the cries of war
Battling for the existence, and the survival of all.
A sliver in a conclave of faith, trapped in a football field
A dot of hope among the seas of hate, taken or retrieved?
Squatters or landlords, the dispirited conquered a brawl
Build by the terror, a fence of life, stands tall, a Barrier Wall.

Civilizations clash at cultures’ cradle – for Life, for Death
Land for Peace, a deal, not ideal, seeks partners of breath.
From afar, men in marble, the fears by bombs direct
A bargain, fifteen of eighty, for six million wrecked.
Clouds of fire, honor the hate, pray for the glory to die
War brews in the Name of God: cheer our children to cry.

Published in The International Who's Who in Poetry 2007.

Writing Hiatus

2007-05-29T08:19:00.000-04:00

I didn’t think it would come to this. I thought I could do both. But I can’t. It is either writing the book in full-force or having a life that includes blogging. And the book wins, again. So, I’m off the grid for a while longer.

Meanwhile, the world moved on with the unshackling of Europe and the restraining of America. In France, the new President Sarkozy surprised all by appointing a bipartisan, gender equal and diversified cabinet. And in Washington, the politicians, shockingly, sound sensible on immigration and Iraq.

And, astonishingly, the Economist had the most succinct article about the Israeli-Arab conflict. The editorial sums it up:

What self-defeating madness. For peace to come, Israel must give up the West Bank and share Jerusalem; the Palestinians must give up the dream of return and make Israel feel secure as a Jewish state. All the rest is detail.

And More World In Figures 2007

2007-05-10T14:05:00.000-04:00

I’m aware of most of the facts in this little book, but the following facts surprised me.

Afghanistan has 2.08 million refugees, way more than #2 Sudan with 730K people. The displacement of refugees explains so much of Afghanistan’s troubled history, and it offers a clue for repair.

Iran leads the nations with the largest refugee populations with 1.046 million people - one more reason to hope for a stabilized Iraq. Next comes Pakistan 960.6K, Germany 876.6k, Tanzania 602.1k and, yes, the United States with 420.9k. I’m not sure what the numbers mean, but they are worth watching.

Earth has 6.4 billion people. 52.1% live in Asia. Only 4% live in the Middle East.

India received 21.6 billion dollars worth of workers remittances, followed by Mexico at 16.6B and the Philippines at 8.9B.

Agriculture is only 1.2% of GDP in the United States.

The top coffee producers are Brazil at 2,357K tones, Vietnam at 831 and only than Columbia at 684. Cote d’Ivoire trembles all in producing cocoa. Bless them, for what would I do without coffee or chocolate?

Peru is the most efficient user of energy. United Arab Emirates has the largest energy consumption per person. #5 is the United States, but #4 is Canada.

Only 51% of the United States population is in the labor force, but that seems to be the norm for developed countries. No wonder we are besieged by social security and health care costs.

In software piracy, Vietnam leads with 92%, followed by Ukraine’s 91% and Russia’s 90%. The numbers are the hiccups of the information revolution.

France received 75 million tourists. The United States, 46M. And China, 41M.

Yemen spends 9.5% of GDP on Education. Cuba 9%. The United States did not make the top 20 Education spending as a percentage of GDP.

United States spends - far and away more than the rest of the world - 15.2% of GDP on healthcare. The astonishing rates for obesity merit a mention but they’re just too depressing to write down.

Finally, while Brazil lost 3.1M hectares of forest, China gained 4M. Good.

Till next year.

World In Figures 2007

2007-05-08T15:03:00.000-04:00

Every year, the Economist publishes a little book with numbers. And every year, I find a treasure trove of facts to think about (see 2006, more, and more) . This year is no different.

Demographic Games
In size, Russia at 17m sq km dwarfs the next five Canada, China, United States Brazil and Australia, at 9.9m down to 7.5m respectively. But in population, China leads with 1.3 billion people, with India at 1 billion in toe. Interestingly, Russia is no longer on the top 15 most populated countries comes 2050.

In fertility rates, Niger and Afghanistan lead a chorus of mostly African nations. And it burns me to know that the women give birth to 5…6…7…8 children only to watch so many of them die, and suffer, from malnutrition, malaria and war. Family planning, with condoms and yes, abortions if it must be, will go a long way toward creating a more healthy life.

Demographic Time Bombs
I noticed the unstable ratio of men to women in the Arab World before, but as the advent of terrorism connects to the hordes of angry young Muslim men, the data merits not only curiosity but also a warning.

In United Arab Emirates, the ratio of men to women is 214 to 100. In Qatar, 206. In Kuwait, 150. In Bahrain, 132. In Oman, 128. And in Saudi Arabia, 117.

On the other side of the coin, the former Soviet Union republics head the list of most female populations. In Latvia, there are 84 men per 100 women. In Estonia and Ukraine 85. And in Armenia, Lesotho, Lithuania and Russia 87.

Japan leads the highest media age with 42.9 years, followed by many European countries. Uganda has the lowest media age with 14.8 years and where 50% are not older than 15 year old. Most of Africa is young, which explains much of the despair but also provides hope.

More later.

As Bloggers Go Silent So Does Egypt

2007-05-01T13:34:00.000-04:00

Two of my favorite bloggers stopped blogging. Both are Egyptians. Both are cranky, opinionated and unabashedly pro-America. And both are not shy telling us when they think we’re wrong. Big Pharaoh said life is too busy. But Sandmonkey admitted life is too dangerous.

During the Cold War, Anwar Sadat re-directed Egypt away from the totalitarian Soviet Union toward the democratic United States. He signed a peace treaty with Israel. He negotiated an annual aid package of about $2 billion. He cheered the future, not the past. And he was murdered.

Meanwhile Mubarak took over. And in the last 20 years, Egypt slid back instead of pushing forward. With 73.4 million people, a third are less than 15 years. (The Economist World Figures 2007). Horrific female genital mutilations are a national habit. And Egypt is home to the Muslim Brotherhood that produced Ql-Qaeda number 2 and numerous terrorists. The country whose ancestors once created the Alexandria Library now has a 55.6% adult illiteracy rate.

Only 3 out of 100 households have computers but bloggers open the door to outsiders. We have seen police abuse, voting fraud and women humiliated. But we have also seen debate, and self-searching. And now, blogging is under attack.

President Mubarak claims democracy will bring the Muslim Brotherhood to power. True. In Egypt, only religious gatherings are tolerated. But when Islamic preachers use religion as politics, Islam becomes virulent. And a society is trapped in a catch-22. Allow democratic elections, and the extremes win. Thwart democracy, and the tyrants win.

There is no easy way out, but threatening bloggers is not on the path for a more equal society. By 2050, Egypt expects 50 million more people. What kind of a future waits for them?

Hooks And The Nuances Of Genre

2007-04-28T08:32:00.000-04:00

As I toddle the path of publishing, and re-writing, I’m gaining respect for the concept of genre.

Three years ago, I pronounced Surfing as a Philosophical Thriller. Philosophical in the sense that it challenges rationality, and offers a new theory. And a Thriller since it is a fast-paced fiction.

But, as I rewrite the hook, and the book, I discover - to my amazement - there is a reason publishers insist on genres. Genres are more than mere sales tools. They also determine the structure of the book.

For example, take the nuances between mystery, suspense and thriller. In a mystery, we follow the good guy as he looks for the bad guy. In a thriller, we watch the good guy confronts the bad guy. A mystery is about the search. A thriller is about the confrontation. A mystery tells of motives and opportunity. A thriller plots actions. Suspense is somewhere in between.

In Surfing, no one dies on the first page. And although I’m rewriting with an emphasis on pacing, the book is more about people’s perceptions than actions. And yes, the bad guy is unknown, but Surfing is not a detective mystery. Moreover, the stakes are high, not local. So, Surfing is not a mystery, but also it is not a pure thriller. Therefore, it must be suspense.

Surfing is the story of the software industry during the Internet Bubble. It drives the plot, and the narrative, and what readers remember. And although I explain theories that hold sway in many areas, business strategy dominates. And the word ‘business’ sounds better than ‘philosophy’ when it comes to sales. Therefore, Surfing is a business fiction.

So, here's the re-written hook for Surfing on Silicon Waves, Business Suspense.

In Silicon Valley of 1999, at the apex of the Internet Bubble, the possibilities seemed endless. When the computer virus Q awakens the Internet, it mimics the human brain. And if people act irrationally, so does Q.

Using Q, the mysterious Gadol redraws the software industry.

And as the financial markets buzz with the dot-com craze, the CEO James Vermont and the aspiring manager Mica Thomas join forces to save the Internet, and our free will.

Based on the hook, will you buy this book?

The Future Of Real Estate

2007-04-23T15:14:00.000-04:00

Last night, a heated debate rose around the kitchen table. My friends are trying to sell a house in the South Florida buyers market. The house, under contract with a real estate broker, is on the market for the last 10 months, with almost no interested buyers, and only one, too low, offer.

Should they renew the contract with the realtor? No, I said. And this is why.

A realtor puts the house in the MLV, the real estate market listing. Well, buyowner can do that, for a fixed fee ($485).

A realtor uses its company to bring in perspective buyers. Well, offering a small commission, or a fixed bonus, to buyer’s agent will do that.

A realtor will take care of the headaches, such as finding a lawyer and speaking with buyers. Well, I heard too many horror stories about agents to say you should find a good lawyer that works for you, not the agent. And buyowner offers the same automatic voice mail services as the agents do. So yes, the agents take care of the headache, but are they worth $17,000?

Okay, but agents provide information about schools and the proper value of the house. Well, the Internet has all the information you need. You’re reading this blog and you can’t spend the time to search before you’re planning to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars?

Okay, I hear you. But how to entice prospective buyers in a buyers-only market? First, publish your home in real estate sites such as buyowner, craiglist and zillow. Second, calculate the commission you would have paid to an agent and lower the asking price. Nothing incites buyers more than a lower price.

I suspect realtors will follow the path of travel agents. If it is a relatively easy deal, a home in a middle class neighborhood with similar houses, a direct seller-buyer transaction is the future. Just as we buy plane tickets and used cars on the Internet, we will find, and buy, our future homes on the web.

The high end, and the specialized, will continue to flourish.

The Supreme Court and the Crime of Choice

2007-04-22T10:47:00.000-04:00

The purpose of law is to create order, not justice. Nevertheless, justice underlines the stability of the legal system. And justice failed this week, in the Supreme Court decision to criminalize partial-birth abortion.

Partial-birth abortion is a particularly abhorring, almost inhuman, procedure. It usually takes place during the third trimester, toward the end of the pregnancy, when the fetus is almost fully formed. I’m not advocating the use of such practice. It should be rare, and discouraged.

But branding, and punishing, the doctors who perform the procedure, and the women who fight for their health and therefore undergo partial-birth abortion, as criminals is wrong.

The Righteous Right frames the debate under the Rights of a Fetus. Life cherished from the time of conception until last breath. But, if we only let God chose Life, we should not have the right to pursue medicine, nor should we fix sick people. Life is precious, but fickle.

We’re all happy when Mother and Fetus share the same passion for life. But when the Fetus challenges the Mother’s life, only the Mother - with support from her family, friends and doctors, not a faceless bureaucracy - has the right to choose the fate of the Fetus.

Again, I’m not advocating abortion. And in the presence of the virulent violence emanating for the Culture of Death, I cherish Life. But the correct policy is to Limit The Need Not The Choice.

Branding women as criminals for protecting themselves is not justice. It is modern day witch-hunt.

Senselessness and Courageousness In VA Tech

2007-04-17T19:25:00.000-04:00

Sadness in Virgina Tech. After the shock, and the fear, and the anger, comes great sadness. First astonishment. How could this be true? A single distraught individual goes on a killing rampage and 32 lives are lost, many others wounded. Then fear, why did it happen? Can it happen again? And finally anger. What was a 23-year-old guy doing with two guns? At the end, all that is left is sadness.

The faces stay with me. Faces of many shades and hues. Faces that tell stories of far away and home grown. Faces of those who are just beginning their journey. And those that just ended it. So much sadness. And so much courage.

Update: List of victims (Wikipedia)

In memory of Kurt Vonnegut

2007-04-12T15:06:00.000-04:00

Kurt Vonnegut died. It is a sad day, even for the eternal pessimists such as Vonnegut.

More in the NY Times and Reason Magazine. (via memeorandum)

Signs Of Summer

2007-04-11T05:57:00.001-04:00

The first storm of the season is here, with thunder, rain and humidity. And what a storm it is. The house is shaking. The trees rattle. And the lights of thunder turn the night into illuminations of beauty, and fear.

At least, our water restrictions will ease. And maybe, home prices will stabilize. And the snowbirds will leave, a month earlier than planned. More water. Less volatility. Less traffic. Good.

It is the first storm, in another long, and dangerous summer. Welcome to Florida.

2007 New Directions Survey

2007-04-09T13:27:00.000-04:00

And again, I received a survey from the Democratic Party. And again, it seems as a way to ask for money while making people feel as if they are part of the political process. And again, the questions are biased toward pre-determined answers, thus meaningless. And again, I'm posting the questions, the multiple-choice answers and my personal opinions.

Part 1: Legislative Priorities
Please rank the following democratic priorities in order of importance. I use the words of the survey. Talk about bias…

1. Protecting our nation from the threat of terrorism
Without security, we are lost. You may argue what is more important to do – protect our ports and airports, search for Ql-Queda cells, or fight in Afghanistan and Iraq - but fighting terrorism is the number one priority. What can Congress do? Ask questions. Many questions. About objectives, and assumptions. But let the Army do its job. Politicians have no business running a war.

2. Expanding access to affordable health care
There’s a catch-22. Yes, I see healthcare as the most important domestic problem. And yes, everyone should have insurance. But no, healthcare should not be run by the government. A single payer healthcare is a system with no incentives for cost control, or quality of care. We need a better business model, not ideology.

3. Achieving energy independence
Solving the energy conundrum will go a long way toward global warming and global politics. The proposed solutions – renewals, ethanol, wind, solar, nuclear power, clean coal, gas, and a cap trading system – have pros and cons. Some are not technically feasible. Some are too costly. And some create new problems. The most efficient move is to take out the 54 cents tariff on sugar ethanol from Brazil. But the politics…

More later.

The Politics of Probably by Speaker Pelosi

2007-04-07T11:41:00.000-04:00

After a triumphant first 100 days in office, Ms. Pelsoi went to the Middle East.

It is one thing to go on a fact-finding mission, and listen. It is a very different thing to go on I-am-the-voice-of-America trip to a hostile country, and speak.

A fine line divides political power and formal accountability. The Democrats feel that the country has spoken. And it has. The shifting Congress is a testament of anger with the Republicans. But, it’s not a statement of dissatisfaction with the political system.

So, yes, Congress should serve as the tag boat to the White House. But, the President of the United States, currently Mr. Bush, is the person elected to run the country, and is also the person we hold responsible. And that accountability requires that only The President sets foreign policy.

Michael Young, in the Beirut Daily Star, deftly described the affects of Speaker Pelsoi trip to Syria.

We can thank the US speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, for having informed Syrian President Bashar Assad, from Beirut, that "the road to solving Lebanon's problems passes through Damascus." Now, of course, all we need to do is remind Pelosi that the spirit and letter of successive United Nations Security Council resolutions, as well as Saudi and Egyptian efforts in recent weeks, have been destined to ensure precisely the opposite: that Syria end its meddling in Lebanese affairs.

Elusive Democracy In The Middle East

2007-04-04T15:19:00.000-04:00

The Economist scathing review of Iraq claim to debunk the neo-conservative claim that the Iraq war was a good idea executed badly.

“Too many people in Washington were fixated on proving an ideological point: that America’s values were universal and would be digested effortlessly by people a world away.”

Well, I can’t speak for ‘people in Washington’, but I know enough of the Middle East to say that bringing democracy to Iraq was a good idea.

The problem is that Democracy in the Middle East is not similar to Democracy in America.

So, no, the Bush Administration did not understand Sunni-Shia complexities, did not comprehend the tribal nature of the Middle East, and did not foresee the rise of Iran. And yes, the lack of planning was a showmanship of poor judgment.

But the Iraqis adapted, quickly. They realized that a one-party Islamic Shia sets the tone, that the organized Kurds have blocking power, and that the Sunnis are not to be kicked out of the political process. It took America a 150 years and a civil war to settle down. It took Europe 50 years and two world wars. Democracy is the incentive, not the result.

It’s arrogant to say that the Iraqis don’t understand Democracy. Do we? Outsiders, watching the bickering between Congress and the White House, can argue that politics is dirty and all politicians are corrupt. America has two political parties. Canada has at least five. Does that mean that America is less democratic than Canada? And a century ago, equality in America did not include blacks and women. Democracy is fluid. And it comes in many flavors.

Just because the Iraqis play democracy according to their own cultural tempo, it does not mean they don’t desire freedom. And just because the neo-conservative label has the bitter taste of failure, we should not mock the ideology of bringing democracy to the Middle East.

The Muddle Of Florida’s Property Tax

2007-03-31T15:05:00.000-04:00

We, in South Florida, are blessed by a prefect winter and summer hurricanes. We are also blessed by a growing economy. As a college student, I hanged out in the local, semi-derelict, pubs of South Beach, now long gone. Today’s South Florida is an eclectic mix of Latinos, yuppies and traffic.

The changes in the last five years are amazing, so is the housing bubble. Once we had the Golden Mile, now the Beach has rows upon rows of high-rises. Once we had middle class neighborhoods of cops and teachers, now we have manicured lawns suburbia. The once common home of $200,000 is now worth $500,000. And that’s the source of the muddle in property taxes.

In a place barraged with hurricanes, home insurance is a must. And, while home values doubled, most incomes barely budged. If home insurance is a percentage of home value, than merely by living in South Florida, the expense doubled. Add a flow of people – the rich running away from Venezuela and cognoscenti gliding down from New York City - many with lots money, and everything, from food to the movies, costs more.

Now, if you own a home for many years, than the county and the city can raise their property taxes only so much, but if you rent or buy, than, well, good luck. Take a long breath and be prepared for the tax onslaught.

So far, the tax reforms are specific. In Nov 06, we approved discounts for senior citizens and veterans. Florida recently approved a statewide discount.

As a proponent of free markets, I find myself in a dilemma. It’s in my best interest to keep property taxes as low as possible. But if there are no government controls, and after three hurricanes, my tax rate would have probably double, tripled or worse.

Therefore, I’m happy that Florida is searching for a property tax reform, but I’m also thrilled to see that the forces of free markets work. South Florida is losing people and the housing market is in doldrums. We may yet regain our sanity.

I wonder what the next five years will bring.

From Feminism to Women’s Rights

2007-03-28T15:26:00.000-04:00

In the blogsphere, three stories about women. Three stories on different issues, with different messages, but all point toward a positive change in the place of women in the world.

In the Economist, a chart with the headline of The Global Glass Ceiling, displays the low presence of women in senior jobs. The US, at around 18%, leads the developing world. But in emerging markets, women thrive. 23% in China. 25% in Russia. 33% in Brazil. And a whopping 50% in the Philippines.

Meanwhile, a swell of sympathy and support for Kathy Sierra after she blogged that she had cancelled an appearance in a tech trade show because of sexual and death threats.

And in Europe, a German judge rouse anger by ruling that a husband can beat his wife because they originated from Morocco. The reason, the Koran sanctions such physical abuse. The uproar has two facets. First, that Sharia Law is cited as above German Law. Second, that the Koran permits wife beating.

With such dismal stories, why would I say that the change is positive? Because my focus is not on where we are, rather on where we are going. Remember, a century ago, women had no right to vote, and no control over their bodies. The stories show that people care, a lot, about women's rights. I’m looking at the momentum.

Feminism originated with the women can do attitude. Now, women are the majority of college graduates. In business, women swell middle management. In the last couple of decades, we watched women excel in politics, in medicine, in law and in journalism. Today’s girls don’t question whether they can be as good as the boys. It’s a non-issue, at least in America.

Therefore, the shift is away from can we to how, from Feminism to Women Rights. Women are on the verge of a tipping point, and the changes are only beginning.

Finally, a positive move toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace

2007-03-26T18:33:00.000-04:00

As an Israeli, I have a hard time with those charts where you are a citizen of the most hated country in the world. It is even harder because we’re infamous because we’re ‘occupiers’. So yes, Israel has, and is, making mistakes, but, outside the US, there’s almost no comprehension that the Palestinians and the Arab World are doing everything they can to destroy Israel's existence.

The Land for Peace deal exists for over 30 years, and although the Land part has been discussed and digested by almost every diplomatic incentive and conference, the Peace part is taboo. The Palestinian right of return to Israel of 1948 is the justification to suicide bombers.

Finally, there is a beginning. The Land for Peace deal boils down to the two scared issues: Israel’s Divided Jerusalem for the Palestinians’ Right of Return.

Is there, finally, a recognition that if the Palestinians want a future they have to accept the past, and the present? I hope so. For their sake. And for ours.

Even having such a debate — rethinking a sacred principle — was once impossible. Now the discussion is centering on how to define the right of return in a new way. Some have come to see the issue as two separate demands: the acceptance, by Israel, that its creation caused the displacement and plight of the Palestinians; and the ability to move back to the lands they or their families left.

Almost no Palestinian questions the demand for Israel’s recognition of the right to return; many, however, now say returning is becoming less and less feasible.(NT Times)

Update: The Arab Summit in Saudi Arabia is over and the Palestinians Right of Return position is entrenched as ever. Nothing is easy in the Middle East.

Labor Unions Search For A Meaning

2007-03-20T13:01:00.000-04:00

In the 20th century, in a world of Managers versus Workers, at a time where people spend a lifetime working for one company, labor unions did a lot of good. They promoted civil rights, decent wages, safer workplace and better benefits. But with the advent of the Knowledge Worker, and blurring of the lines between Owners, Managers and Employees, it is time to ask – why unions?

The Measure Of A Job
For the passionate left, labor unions are the voice of the worker. (Nathan Newman and Ezra Klein). But in developed nations, the most desirable jobs are knowledge based. And knowledge shuffles the power board. Even mechanics who handle the latest computer-loaded cars are specialists in demand. In a knowledge economy, the more you know, the more coveted you are. And there lies the unions’ predicament.

In the debate, the missing nuance is the difference between better wages per job and the existence of the job. By focusing on wages and benefits, labor unions do a marvelous job of promoting equal pay for the same job. With more data, unions can compare and cajole companies to negate personal bias. And as a group with the power to strike, unions can counter the wrath of management.

But in a knowledge economy, labor unions face two problems.

Quality, not Quantity
Somewhere along the way, the demand for minimum pay became a glass ceiling, and the mantra of pay per seniority became a labor union standard.

An argument can be made that the job of one casino dealer is the same as another casino dealer, but can we say the same about teachers? Is a bad – unknowledgeable, unmotivated and unprepared and – teacher is the same as a good one?

Some say that money should not serve as an incentive in education. Well, money cannot be the only motive, but it plays a role. Why not reward good teachers? And despite the on-going debate about the details of No Child Left Behind funding, on one denies that money is a useful whip.

Labor unions abhor globalization because it shifts manufacturing jobs to lower wages countries. Yet, our 5% unemployment rate is the envy of most nations. But, the labor unions cry, some jobs don’t pay enough, hence the push for increasing the minimum wage. Well, if the idea is to help the poor, than give the poor direct assistance with the reverse income tax. Why helping the poor requires punishing companies?

Moreover, higher wages lead to fewer jobs. A minimum wage hurts small companies more than they impact the big ones. And innovations, for example in textile, make machines, not workers, more important. The argument that unions are good for the economy – committed workers increase productivity – carries no weight if compensation is not directly connected to productivity.

Therefore, the future of labor unions depends on an ideology that avoids the trap of seniority without ability. The trick is to walk away from pay per quantity and embrace compensation per quality, in other words, flexibility.

Flexibility As The Antidote
Also, along the way, the labor movement emphasis on wages translated into securing the existence of the job.

But the value of jobs shifts with time, thus in the last 150 years we moved from an agriculture to industrial to knowledge economies. And knowledge defies geographical boundaries. The jobs that stay are those with a local facet – lawyers, doctors and yes, waiters, janitors and home aid workers.

Sweden is a favorite example of a union-dominated economy. Yes, with 9m people, the labor-regulated country is one of the best performing economies in the world. But Sweden created almost no private sector jobs since the 1950s. Youth employment is among the highest in Europe. And the true employment rate is around 15-17%. (Economist). Most people work in either a big business – mostly controlled by families - or the pubic sector. Entrepreneurship is almost non-existent.

Denmark is a better example. It has high taxes and a strong welfare support, but workers trade job security for a time-limited but generous unemployment support. Yet, Denmark has a hard time nudging the chronic unemployed back to work.

Healthcare, say the unions, is a big issue. I agree. But healthcare paid by the employer is a direct result of the lifetime contract we once had. Healthcare is a problem that needs a solution regardless of labor unions.

We’re the voice of workers say the labor unions. Okay. But, while Detroit losses its cool, Toyota excels because its employees actively participate in production. Giving employees a voice is a trend, not because labor unions say so, but because it makes business sense.

Strike power, the unions’ power tool, also backfired. Once, supporting a strike was noble. Today, an airline strike only makes customers walk away to the nearest counter. And in countries where government pays for healthcare, those who suffer the most from a nation-wide doctors strike are the sick.

Most important, flexibility goes both ways. Just as people move from one employer to another in search of compensation and challenge, letting go of a worker is an effective whip. In the push for innovation, labor flexibility benefits both employers and employees.

As a result, in our flexible knowledge-based economy, the labor unions offer of a job guarantee doesn’t sell. If in the 1950s, 35% of workers were unionized, today the number stands at 7.4%.

Fewer members, less political influence. There's the pothole.

The Political Whip Stick
With organization comes political power. If Big Business floods Washington with lobbyists, than labor unions serve as the whip stick. They bring votes and money. And once the Democrats took control of Congress, the unions asked for payback, hence the Minimum Wage raise and the Free Choice Act.

The Minimum Wage raise passed without too much opposition. (I voted for a similar ballot in Florida, although I think direct assistance to the poor would do a better job) But the Free Choice Act aims to achieve exactly the opposite of what its name implies.

By revoking secret ballots, Free Choice Act will actually take away the workers ability to choose. “[Labor unions] want government to allow them to, in effect, silence the employers' side of debates about the merits of unionization." (George Will). Because “If organizers persuaded at least 51 percent of employees, the UAW automatically would become the workers' union.” (James Sherk) . And “if secrets ballots are recognized as crucial in Mexico” (WSJ), aren’t they a must in the Land of the Free?

The Free Choice Act is nothing but a way to negate choice and provide political protection. Moreover, it gives labor unions the reputation of sore losers. And the cacophony of let’s blame the rich is out of touch with the American Dream.

However, since a side affect of capitalism is that the strong gets stronger and the week gets weaker, labor unions can play a constructive role. To do so, the first step is to shed the notion that wealthy, arrogant bosses exploit the diminutive, helpless worker. Instead of confrontation, seek cooperation.

A Future Of Mobile Unity
The future of labor unions boils down to – what does a mobile worker in a flexible economy need? The answer is where group power adds value, in providing education, in negotiating healthcare, and in offering retirement and financial planning.

Sara Horowitz’s The Freelancers Union in New York is a good example. The union offers an array of services that members can choose from, such as healthcare, training and social networking. The union’s commission fee generates funds for a political fight for friendlier labor laws.

So, yes, labor unions are especially beneficial for the weaker segments of society. And yes, unions are valuable for occupations such as janitors and home health aids workers. And yes, in the political arena, labor unions balance Big Business lobbyists.

But with the rapid pace of knowledge, Big Business is adapting, fast. So should labor unions.

Cruelty knows no bounds

2007-03-17T13:09:00.000-04:00

Suicide bombers driving trucks loaded with chlorine-laden bombs attacked three targets west of Baghdad, sickening hundreds of Iraqis and six U.S. soldiers, military officials said today. Local doctors said 12 Iraqis died in the blasts, which sent clouds of potentially lethal gas into the air. (LA Times)

Terrorism is not a word to take lightly. It means the use of violence to create fear. Terrorists don't discriminate civilians from soldiers, or children from adults. They kill for the sake of Death.

Is this the beginning of the era of Terrorism with Weapons of Mass Destruction? I hope not, but the signs are ominous.

Update: Contrary to common perceptions, humans are not Noble Savages, but overall violence is decreasing. (Steven Pinker)

Drugs, Sex and Rock N' Roll in Spam

2007-03-16T14:24:00.000-04:00

Usually, I’m diligent about cleaning up my spam.

Gmail does a marvelous job of catching up those unwanted emails, and I hardly see those irritating blurbs in my inbox. Yet, pressing Delete, and watching the spam disappear into cyberspace oblivion, gives me a sense of satisfaction. You, spammers, somewhere behind the anonymity of the Internet, had intruded into my space, but I can delete you out of my life, or at least out of my email.

I was busy and somehow the spam box reached more than 100 emails. I was about to press Delete when I realized that the spam consists of more or less the same themes.

Do you want… your girl to love you? Have better sex? Have a pill?

Do you want… better software? To watch more sex? To feel better?

And, do you want… help? Get richer? Have a beautiful girl?

The Internet offers much, but it seems we’re still interested in the same things our parents did… sex, drugs and rock n’ roll.

Winning In 2008…

2007-03-15T13:19:00.000-04:00

David Broder says that Reports of the GOP's Death . . . are, well, premature. But “… no doubt about the qualities Republicans want in a candidate -- someone who will restrict abortion, oppose same-sex marriage and support tax cuts.”

Yet, as the political trend points out, the candidates who support middle-the-road politics are the ones who get elected.

Republicans may want a righteous candidate just as the Democrats want a liberal one. But to win, both will have to swallow their ideology and move to the center.

The 2008 race will be lively, and surprising.

The Dirty Detail Of Our Ethanol Deal With Brazil

2007-03-10T12:03:00.000-05:00

In the array of green energy, Ethanol is one of the more promising options. It’s renewable. It’s grown, not mined. It’s not ugly, and not dangerous. And as Brazil shows, it’s a feasible technology.

So, the combination of good public relations (Green is Good) and a vile enemy from an oil-rich country (Chavez from Venezuela) make the argument for an Ethanol agreement with Brazil.

Sounds great. But.. the problem is in the details.

As Daniel Drezner noted:

The agreement, reached as Bush kicked off a six-day tour of the region, was crafted to expand research, share technology, stimulate new investment and develop common international standards for biofuels.

Mr. da Silva is hopeful that the United States will reduce its tariff of 54 cents a gallon on Brazilian ethanol, which is made primarily from sugar cane — a trade barrier that protects the American farmers who produce corn for ethanol.

But when Mr. da Silva was asked about the possibility of eliminating the tariff, Mr. Bush jumped in. “It’s not going to happen.”

So much for a quick green future.

Unity08 and the Missing Middle

2007-03-06T12:28:00.000-05:00

On almost every measure, on every poll I take, and on every issue debated, I belong to the political Middle. But, I’m a minority.

As Alan Abramowitz and Bill Bishop wrote in WP, “The visual representation of the nation's voters isn't a nicely shaped bell, with most voters in the moderate middle. It's a sharp V.”

I first stumbled on Unity08 on del.icio.us, and signed up. But the feed is about people, not ideas. David Broder explains that Unity08 tackles Washington’s bazaar with Internet nominations. Okay. What Unity08 stands for, I have yet to figure out.

So, I’m still partyless, jumping from one political bed to another.

Meanwhile, the Democrats veer left, thus making them less desirable to me. And the Republicans are apparently – there’s an irony – not ‘conservative enough’. So, while I would like to vote for Change, hence a Democrat, I may end up voting Republican.

Yes, despite our small numbers, it is still we, the Missing Middle, which sifts elections. Lets hope comes election time, we’re still desirable.

Foreign Policy of Partners with Mutual Interests

2007-03-04T12:16:00.000-05:00

In too many polls, people view the ascent of the United States as the single superpower as dangerous, but if there is a distinct tempo to President Bush current foreign policy it is the search for partners with mutual interests.

This policy is a far cry from the stand-alone or appeasement points of view. This pragmatic policy employs both hard (military) and soft (financial) power. It is a shift from changing regimes to containment. It searches for those countries, and yes, rulers, who share the same vital interest. Most importantly, it works. It works with North Korea. And is starting to work with Iran.

To me, North Korea was always a China problem. When North Korea tested its nuclear device, China lost ‘face’. Suddenly, the negotiations were back on. Critics say the current agreement doesn’t go far enough and that it is similar to President Clinton’s ill-fated deal. Well, yes, the deal is a good first step, but there must be more. The difference is in the gist – the regime can keep its toys in return for full openness without nuclear weapons. The hope is that time, and free trade, will eventually lead to democracy.

Iran deploys a path of religious conflict. It is Islam against the West, but – and here lies the weakness – within the Middle East, it is Shiite against Sunni. Enter Saudi Arabia. As Egypt plays a diminished role in Arab World, Saudi Arabia is stepping in as the Sunni counterweight to Shiite Iran. So far, the results are that the Siniora Government still stands in Lebanon and Hamas (supported by Iran) reached an agreement with Fatah. Now, they are working on Iraq. Then, maybe, the nuclear question.

Either way, Saudi Arabia involvement is a major shift in the power plays of the Middle East.

And interestingly, the BBC does not think that the astonishing Saudi Arabia-Iran meeting merits a headline.

Next, find a way to stop China from blindly supporting Sudan’s regime despite the genocide in Darfur.

Update: A day later, the BBC headline Mid-East vow to curb sectarianism. In the article, the message is that all Iran and Saudi Arabia talked about was how much they hate America.

And Now, Don’t Read, Don’t Write

2007-03-02T10:46:00.000-05:00

Blogging is time consuming, sometimes irritating, mostly demanding. And every time I take a break, I ask myself why do I blog. Why? Why? Why?

In my self-imposed exile from the world, I found I could not watch TV or read the news, simply because I did not have the outlet to respond. Talk shows, newscasts, and now the Internet, bombard us with tidbits of information, but without a way to sort through all the noise, it all ends up sounding the same. Without feedback, information didn’t make sense.

Before the blog, I used post-it notes, just to jog down highlights. In the worse case, a thought would get stuck in my mind, circling again and again, until something else could peek my interest. That does not cut it anymore. I miss blogging.

A Problem of Writing Or Marketing?

2007-03-01T12:27:00.000-05:00

Turns out you can buy books about writing, take a writing workshop, but there is no escape from the tussles of actually writing a book. And it always takes longer than planned. A month and half later, 3 chapters are revised, synopsis done, query done. It is time to surface.

Surfing on Silicon Waves is no ordinary thriller. It is a philosophical thriller. It has a fast pace plot, with the Internet Bubble as background. But it also presents a theory. And until the Key West Workshop, I felt a conflict existed between the fictional and the non-fictional aspects. So far, the main complaint was that Surfing was ‘too technical’, but I wasn’t willing to ‘dumb down’.

Okay, I thought, let’s write the synopsis. After all, Surfing exists, so the synopsis should not be a big deal, right? Wrong. In a 350 pages book condensed into 15, there is no place to hide. The plot is interesting, or not. It’s taut, or not. The characters, their relationships, the premise – all out for display. It works, or not.

The synopsis took three weeks, next came the actual revision. Okay, I thought, I’m in trouble. I’m not cutting out the epigrets (for the premise) and the essays (for the theory). So, how to make Surfing more readable? The answer is pacing. Shorter paragraphs. Succinct sentences. Keep the gist, but throw away the technical terminology. The feedback tells me I succeed. Whoopee.

The feedback also tells me that although the writing is good – a friend said she could not put it down- I still have a marketing problem. Surfing is not an ordinary thriller. It has a unique format. It’s not ‘light reading’. Surfing demands thinking. Therefore, expectations play a part in the feedback. People were shocked if I had not explained what Surfing is about, but supportive and amazed when I did. Another friend said it well – Surfing will either be a strikeout or a homerun.

And finally, how to condense a 350-page book into a sentence?

In Silicon Valley of 1999, at the apex of the Internet Bubble, “… the possibilities seemed endless.” When the computer virus Q attacks the Internet, it ignites a crisis for the CEO James Vermont, the aspiring manager Mica Thomas and the reporter Jonathan Williams. They join forces to stop the mysterious Gadol from manipulating the financial markets and save the Internet.

What I Learned From Timothy Seldes And Susan Shreve

2007-01-15T08:51:00.000-05:00

Timothy Seldes and Susan Shreve, a husband and wife team, ran a writing workshop in the Key West Literary Seminar. Timothy is a legendary agent. At 24, as an editor in Doubleday, he published Isaac Asimov. As an agent, he guided Annie Dillard to the Pulitzer Prize. Susan writes children’s books. She also leads George Mason creative writing program. Here is what I learned:

Writing and Publishing

'Writers publish because they want to be rich and famous' is a myth. Most books don’t pay the bills, and the unpublished are at the bottom of the social dunghill. Point is, most writers are humbled but published.

Writing is learned. The talent debate was revealing. Timothy said talent shows. Susan countered that hard work matters more. In retrospect, agents see final drafts and – easily – recognize quality, therefore, for Timothy the talented shine. But Susan, as a writer and a teacher, knows writing is a process: what is bad can be better and what is good can be superb. Persistence pays.

Yet, authors are not writers, and vice versa. Authors have a story to tell. Writers need to write. If an author worked with writing, i.e. an English teacher, than an incredible single story can emerge. Otherwise, get a ghostwriter or pay a book doctor. Writers, on the other hand, develop. For writers, college programs, seminars, conferences and workshops play a part. The benefits depend on goals, costs and, yes, talent.

The (un) importance of writing history. The author’s writing history is a sales tool. For an agent, writing history helps sell the author to a publisher. But, for a publisher, the writer’s bibliography is important if the author, not the book, is the brand. For example, the Star Trek series sells by book, but Michael Connelly is a brand. Writing history is crucial only when it reflects writing skills.

When Timothy asked, I did not tell him ‘God Emerged from the Loneliness of Souls’ was the first presented poem in poetry.com Who’s Who in Poetry 2005. Poetry proved fatal when I tried to cold sell the thriller. In the workshop, it was obvious my background was poetry. And Susan amazed me when she recognized Connie’s first sentence as a beginning for a short story.

Publishing is changing. When Timothy started as an editor all he had to say to publish Isaac Asimov was ‘I like it’. Today, MBAs rule and editors don’t participate in marketing meetings. The publishers judge books, and writers, not by quality, but by their sales record. But change can be good.

First, Publishers are merging. The conglomerates are on acquisition sprees of small presses and editors don’t stay too long with one publisher. That limits editors’ ability to choose books. But the Internet is emerging as a new, and cheap, way to both create and sell books. Self-publishing is thriving and is shedding its inferior image. The publishing industry is bigger than music or movies. And more books are published each year.

Second, bookstores are merging. In the book chains, bookstore managers don’t buy books. Independent bookstores, such Mitch Kaplan’s Books & Books, are ‘beloved’. That limits the distribution options. But, the Internet, again, allows people to buy niche and out-of-print books - the Long Tail. In Amazon.com, people influence the demand directly. Therefore, distribution shifts toward bestsellers and niches.

Third, reading habits are changing. People read less, but more people read. And books are more specialized. Genre is more defined, and more important. In the NY Times most viewed articles in 2006, #2 is the ten best books and #6 is the best work of fiction. Blogs, such as ‘bookslut’, are flourishing. And, of course, book clubs abound. Reading is a social activity.

Niches thrive, yet everyone wants the Best Seller, because those books pay the bills, for writers, publishers and agents.

Writer-Agent Relationship

A saleable book is a published book, but a best seller needs an agent. Non-fiction is easier to write, and sell, than fiction. And, don’t bother looking for an agent until you have a ‘good enough and complete draft’.

Agents navigate the maze. The Writer-Agent ‘marriage’ has two facets. First, agents get paid when authors get paid. That insures the agent’s loyalty to the writer, not publisher. Second, as editors lose prominence, agents are the writers’ career consultants. For the details, read Lori Perkins' Getting an Agent.

Agents are people. Do you need to like your agent? Must your agent like you? No, and yes. Respect is essential because the agent is the writer’s face in the industry. But, trust is the key. Writer-Agent relationships are usually long term. If trust does not exist, both ways, it is a call for trouble. Perkins says agents are editors, lawyers or salespeople. Timothy Seldes is an editor at heart (he changed ‘who’ to ‘whom’ in someone’s notebook). Sandra Dijkstra (Amy Tan’s agent) is a salesperson. It is not an issue of good or better, rather of complementing skills and personalities. If it doesn't work out, don’t take it personally. Chemistry matters.

Cold Call Query. Timothy’s best friend is his cell phone. Good agents are busy, and selective. Queries work best for non-fiction because it is easier to match topic with experience. In fiction, agents search for key words such as an MFA from Yale or Columbia or winning a writing contest. From an agent point of view, queries are cold calls. If we won’t transfer money to an unknown broker, why would we assume an agent would invest time in an unproven writer? Find a way – through friends or conferences – to meet the agents listed in the Writer’s Digest ‘Guide to Literary Agents’.

Key West Writer’s Workshop
Key West Literary Seminar has a good reputation and after meeting the tripod of Miles, Alan and Jason, I know why. Our first meeting was at Café Med, the best un-promoted restaurant in Key West. And I’m looking forward to 2008 New Voices.

Workshop wisdom. Since I had a complete draft, I was looking for an agent, not writing advice, but ‘writing a book is only the beginning’ turned true. I took the workshop because queries returned unread, Key West is within driving distance, and I (really!) wanted to meet Timothy who had published Isaac Asimov. The research pays. The workshop cost $450. Hotel and meals $650. Timothy’s face when I told him what I know, priceless.

The workshops included a wide range of people, from wannabes writers to serial participants to the purpose driven. Asking for a sample before acceptance and writing assignments during the workshop was a good way to ensure quality. In retrospect, the quality of the participants made the workshop a success.

We were lucky. Timothy and Susan provide value as workshop leaders, but together, they rock. The blending of an agent and a writer provided nuances needed to understand the links between publishing and writing. We had the best of both worlds. The group - Frank Wallace, Sheila Bilak, Connie Gilbert, Philip Cioffari and I – was small but varied and similarly strong in writing skills.

It was fascinating to match writer to genre. Frank, a former principle, self-published a children’s book, the Starlight Medallion. In many ways, Frank was my mirror. Both of us had a good career outside writing and share a goal-driven personality. Sheila writes an historical novel. Connie as C.S Gilbert published a short story in Mango Summers, and is working on a new collection. (We met in Connie’s lovely home). Phillip is the professional, a literature professor with two books, the ‘Catholic Boys’ and ‘A History of Things Lost or Broken’, and a film.

The Feedback dilemma. It’s easy to see flaws in someone else’s writing, but flaws are the difference between the un-saleable to the saleable and the good to the superior. As a guide, I used James N. Frey’s How To Write A Damn Good Novel. A tiny book with all the answers. Reading it for the hundredth time, I still get a kick from a point I missed or a concept I did not comprehend until I actually faced the problem.

How do you know a book is ready? When you show it. The problem is to whom. In the workshop, the views varied. Friends tend to be uncritical, or unspecific. Writers need what James Frey calls a ‘destructive’ writer’s group. For me, the feedback was consistent. Timothy said the same things my friends said about my book, but he showed me what was wrong. That made me realize I have to make a choice: ‘keep as is’ and have my foibles or ‘fix it’ and have a saleable book. In many ways, the feedback was liberating.

Surfing on Silicon Waves
Surfing is a philosophical thriller that tells the ‘Silicon Valley story during the Internet Bubble (1999-2000)’ and explains ‘how rational people can cause an irrational event’. Timothy said the title is good, the background is good, the book is smart, but the technology drowns the narrative.

Target market and clarity. Two years ago, I decided it's okay that 90% of the people who would read the book won’t understand its full impact. That was stupid! With the 90/10 split, I, de-facto, narrowed my target market to the 10%. Susan said ‘I try to do too much’. She was right. I don’t have to write everything I know in Surfing. I can write more books, or blog posts, to explain the details. If my goal is clarity, than, in fiction, all that matters is gist.

To Timothy, narrative reigns. And as I scour books from Michael Crichton, Fredrick Forsyth and, yes, Isaac Asimov, authors who share the same objective as I do, I realize what Timothy meant. In the books I admire, the gist of the scientific problem does not drown the narrative. In Surfing, therefore, my task is to revise, edit or delete those sentences that halt the narrative. I posted a gigantic sign on the wall. A reminder from Isaac Asimov. "If you don't understand me, the fault is mine, not yours.”

Synopsis and outline. If narrative dominates, than the plot must be fast and furious. I did not write from an outline. I let the story, and the characters, develop. I wrote the outline once I had a skeleton to check that the pieces worked together. Now, I’m writing a synopsis to test that the plot grabs attention. Susan mentioned she had done the same – wrote a synopsis after the book was done – and as a result put the book in the drawer. I can attest that the synopsis confronts the shadows of the story.

Breath-Based Writing. I have dyslexia (the disconnect between vision and sound). It means that for many years I could not read properly, or write. To overcome the dyslexia, I had developed a writing style that Susan called ‘lyric’ but I name as Breath-Based. It means a healthy dose of short sentences, commas and rhythms. It also means that I cannot spell, recognize tenses or follow usage rules. For that I have a secret weapon, my ex-stepmother, Anita Faulkner Max. Point is, read what you love, write what you love, and don’t worry about the rest until the moment before you send out the draft. Know thy self by style.

Trust yourself. In writing, rule one is - don’t stop. Work from strength, don’t compromise, but attack your weaknesses. I was worried that the poetry and essays won’t be accepted in a thriller, but Timothy did not care because they stand outside the narrative. In retrospect, they make sense in a philosophical thriller. Also, it was obvious who I was, very quickly. I did not have to tell Timothy I once jumped out of an airplane. He knew my attributes, and flaws. In the workshop, I learned that it is simple to see the connection between the writing and the writer.

This blog takes a hiatus. I am rewriting Surfing on Silicon Waves.

Welcome, Secretary General

2007-01-04T18:26:00.000-05:00

This week, Ban Ki Moon became the new Secretary General of the United Nation. On his first speech, he said, “If the issues with the conflicts between Israel and Palestine go well, [resolutions of] other issues in the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Syria, are likely to follow suit.” (Jpost)

Well, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the cause, but it is a good excuse. The sources to Islamic terrorism and hatred of the West come from tribes dominated by a men-centered honor culture, governments of tyranny not democracy, and the adulation of Death and Jihad by Islamic clerics. While the current state is not good for Israel or the Palestinians, it serves a political purpose for many in the Middle East.

The only viable solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the Land for Peace deal enshrined in UN Resolutions 242 and 348. So, Secretary General, as a member of the Quartet, you can actually help. Here are some suggestions:

Redefine UNRAW. If there is one single area in which the UN does most harm and has the most influence, it is regarding the Palestinians refugees. In its current role, UNRAW aims to provide relief and work, in reality, it cements the status of Palestinians as refugees. It needs to change from a political batball of Israel to a technocratic arm helping the future citizens of Palestine. Start by handpicking a new boss, one that United States supports, preferably a businessman who understands effectivity.

Stabilize ‘Gaza First’. A year after Israel’s withdrawal, Gaza is a place of violence and strife. Hamas is an elected government - but one who chooses not to recognize Israel and promotes Jihad - so sustain the ban. Since corruption and fear rule Gaza, disperse the funds directly to the people.

Cultivate ‘Palestine’. Democracy works best when powerful institutions – i.e. executive, legislative and justice - fight for dominance. Help design incentives for better governance in issues ranging from laws, healthcare, education and taxes.

Denounce ‘Iran’s Holocaust’. For its own political reasons, Iran embraced the strategy of debunking the Holocaust and calling for Israel’s destruction. It is a call for genocide, and there is no excuse for not saying loud and clear that it must stop. Also, Israel is the punching bag for the UN General Assembly, with 25 resolutions condemning Israel, none condemning Hamas, Hezbollah or the Islamic Jihad (Eye on the UN). A more balanced approach will help.

Affirm ‘Land for Peace’. Ask yourself, if the deal has been around for the last 25 years, why it hasn’t happened? Well, the Arab World ability to recognize Israel’s existence is measured in snail pace. The Israeli view, which I share, is no trust and no partner. And, the holy cows are a United Jerusalem on the Israeli side and the Right of Return on the Palestinian side. But an opportunity exists within the context of the Sunni-Shia rivalry, which is why redefining UNRAW and denouncing ‘Iran’s Holocaust’ are so important.

Lets hope, Secretary General, that when you finish the job in ten years time, UNRAW or the Quartet won’t exist. The best scenario is that you will no longer be needed.

The Three Biggies Healthcare, Energy and Poverty

2007-01-01T08:18:00.000-05:00

On the first day of 2007, it seems a good time as any to look at the three big problems of our era that need innovation: Healthcare, Energy and Poverty.

Healthcare is a business model problem. The two leading models are European’s government run healthcare or American’s business financed systems. The problem lies with the tradeoffs. Manage by the state and lose efficiency. Manage for profit and lose universal care.

Energy is a technological problem. But progress in technology depends on a combination of business incentives and political policies. If we want to move from a fossil fuel energy structure to renewal energy sources, we need government to formulate incentives (i.e. cap regulations or gas taxes) and let the markets play their game.

Poverty is a political problem. Despite the current hurrah, poverty is not inequality. In developed countries, the powers of diversity and specialization are the primary causes of inequality, and poverty is a reflection of the weaker segments of society. Attacking poverty is more a question of ‘how’, rather than ‘should we’. In developing countries, poverty is a direct result of tenuous structures, either in government, economy or culture. Although there is a push for more government intervention, I believe that incentive-based programs will work much better.

It will be interesting to see how these three will manifest themselves in the political battles of 2007, and the upcoming 2008 elections.

An End To Tyranny?

2006-12-30T09:50:00.000-05:00

The Iraqis executed Saddam Hussein. (NYTimes)

It is amazing to think that four years ago Saddam Hussein was the dictator of the moment, sitting atop of an oil-rich nation with - as Europe and United States intelligence services then believed- weapons of mass destruction and a nuclear bomb on the way. It is an end of an era, but what will the next one bring?

When the Cold War imploded with the destruction of the Berlin Wall and the meltdown of the Soviet Union, some said it was the end of history. Communism is synonymous with tyranny, and when its ideology was trampled by capitalism, tyranny was thought to follow. But communism and capitalism are economic ideologies where the collective bowed to the individual. They are not ideologies of government power. Since people equate capitalism with inequality, thus unfairness, they also feel there is a need for socialist, hence collective, government. Thus, tyranny is a tool of power - an individual using the collective for control - and it shows its ugly head even in ‘enlightened’ formats.

But, Saddam did represent the blatant dictator. His execution, by his people, serves as a warning to other tyrants. So, although tyranny is far from gone, and the global system still views sovereignty as a prime directive, at least the dictators learned that they need to hide behind the notion of ‘elections’. The idea that some type of a contact exists between a ruler and its citizens has taken hold. It is a good step forward.

The Coercive Hand And Corruption

2006-12-27T08:24:00.000-05:00

Among the Economist tidbits in the holiday issue was an elaborate article on the etiquette of bribery (subscription required). Here some highlights:

Most people who bribe –even in the most corrupted countries – hide the hand off. The good news, corruption is not a desired social behavior. The bad news, bribery is entrenched in certain cultures.

“…Corruption slows development but a corrupt country is nevertheless capable of rapid growth. Countries may be corrupt because they are poor, and not the other way around.” In other words, poverty and corruption play catch-22.

Jakov Svensson from Stockholm University correlated corruption to overall education (lower), openness to imports (lower), freedom of the press (lower), and the number of days to open a business (higher). And socialist countries show a higher level of corruption than others. One factor stands out: “… where there is a lot of government, there is a lot of bribery.”

In modern democracies, governments are often thought-off as the white knight that can fix social ills. While big business is bashed for their market power, government is accountable by elections. But big business drives its power from the state and is accountable to the clarity of profits. Government, on the other hand, has no clear liability measure, and is the only modern organization that can coerces its members.

If corruption correlates to coercion - more coercive power, more corruption - than beware of the coercive hand of the state.

To Tax (Gas) Or Not To Tax?

2006-12-26T09:58:00.000-05:00

As global warming becomes a staple of conversation, politicians have yet to deal seriously with how to move the country away from ‘our addiction to oil’. As I see it, there are three options: secure the supply, sway the supply and dampened the demand.

Secure the supply is the current (republican) strategy: Find avenues of buying fossil fuels from the more friendly countries such as Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. The strategy is stable because it considers the current state of technology, but it ignores the affects of global warming, road congestion, air pollution, and the political ramifications of a global energy race.

Sway the supply is the trendy (democratic) response: Manipulate the markets through regulations (i.e. fuel standards) or cap-and-trade (such as the European Market system). The idea is good but governments sometimes do more harm than good. The European carbon cap system fails miserably because caps are set too high and the companies who benefited the most are from (the fast growing with no environmental restrictions) China. And regulating cars but not trucks led to a buying frenzy of gas guzzling SUVs.

Dampen the demand is promoted by Greg Mankiw under the Piqou Club name. In essence, a pigovian tax aims to compensate for negative externalities, in this case the harmful affects of fossil fuels. The proposed tax is a $1 per gallon phased in 10-years.

Critics cite that taxes hurt the economy, especially the poor. True, but air pollution, road congestion and global warming also hurt the economy, and if the extra revenue will be diverted directly to common transportation projects such as metro rails, subways and buses than we will all benefit, especially the poor. Most important, increasing the price of oil will invoke the power of the markets to discover and improve renewal energy sources.

If we find better energy solutions, it will help us, and it will benefit the rest of the world. Just think of a world flooded by energy from corn, sun and wind and the impact on China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela or Africa.

Religion, Violence and the Law In Egypt

2006-12-18T11:07:00.000-05:00

As for Baha'ism, it is not one of the recognized heavenly religions, and who over follows it from the muslims will be considerd an apostate since its principles stand in opposion with the principles of the Islamic religion, plus the other heavenly religions. Furthermore, its believers have totally and utterly forbidden the islamic sharia sanctioned Jihad, for they wish to get the islamic nations to hand its neck to their executioners without any resistance, using idelaistic and romantic speeches to get everybody to agree to one global government, which is the one true aim of the Baha'i religion, and the secretive reason why they are supported by the imperialistic powers- old and new- which shelters them and defends their rights…" (via Sandmonkey)

The above is a legal opinion in an Egyptian court of law.

No wonder, Anwar Sadat was murdered after making peace with Israel. Sadat saw Egypt as the beacon of a new modern and flourishing Arab World. Sadly, Egypt's intellectuals lead the parade of 'Lets hate Israel' (MEMRI).

Luckily, some brave souls can write - with humor - about the Middle East. Congratulations to Sandmonkey for winning the Weblogs.

Blood Memory by Greg Iles

2006-12-18T09:28:00.000-05:00

(Amazon Book Review) “When does murder begin?” asks Catherine ‘Cat’ Ferry. As a forensic odontologist, Cat knows ‘teeth’. After suffering panic attacks during an investigation on a serial killer that bits the naked elderly men victims, she returns home to Natchez, Mississippi. By accident, in her childhood room, Cat discovers a footprint in blood, from the night her father died.

Blood Memory is a study of the psychology of child sexual abuse. Written in first person, we watch Cat, an alcoholic with a mild form of manic-depressive disorder and a history of unsavory sexual appetite, struggle with her past as she digs into her family secrets. Hunted by the mysterious Nathan Malik’s remark that the New Orleans murders are connected to her family, and that she should search for the ‘silent accomplices’, Cat asks what role her distant mother, crazy Aunt Ann, the submissive servant Pearlie, her grandfather, Dr. William Kirkland, and her dead father had played. Impregnated by her married lover, Detective Sean Regan, the truth becomes a powerful motive that carries Cat into danger physically and emotionally.

Although not as innovative as the ‘Footprints of God’, the taut plot and the captivating Cat make Blood Memory hard to put down.

Tribute to Milton Friedman (1912 – 2006)

2006-12-17T09:29:00.000-05:00

Celebrity is a term often used to describe a starlet not a five foot two intellectual giant who dubs in numbers and sputters economic jargons, but Milton Friedman fame existed also as a flaming debater promoting ‘Free to Choose’. Analyzing the Great Depression, he challenged the Keynesian bond of inflation to unemployment, promoted ‘floating exchange rates’, and introduced the ‘permanent income hypothesis’. At that time, people admired Marxism and Communism for their central command and control, and the idea that individuals know best was hearsay. Luckily for us, Friedman and the Chicago School ‘chaos of free markets’ prevailed.

Capitalism has a bad rap when it comes to inequality and poverty, but, as Milton Friedman advocated, free markets are better than governments in promoting social welfare because people know best how to better themselves. Instead of ‘nanny’ programs, Friedman invented the negative income tax (earned income tax credit) as a direct way to help the working poor. He also promoted education vouchers assuming private schools do a better job than defunct public schools.

Some ideas are notoriously divisive. For example, Friedman derided Social Security, a program that combines a steep regressive income tax and a welfare subsidy paid without regard to need. ‘People know best’ served as the moral foundation for the controversial ideas of ‘legalizing drugs’ to end the war on drugs and ‘abolish occupational licenses’ to prevent overreaching government regulations.

In ‘Capitalism and Freedom’, Friedman astutely observed that economic freedom was necessary ingredient to political liberty, but democracy is not a necessity for the efficiencies of capitalism. He was wary of economic control as a potential threat to individual liberties.

On his role as a public intellectual, Milton Friedman said: "We do not influence the course of events by persuading people that we are right when we make what they regard as radical proposals. Rather, we exert influence by keeping options available when something has to be done at a time of crisis."(WSJ)

Milton Friedman would probably be pleased with the Time’s choice for Person of the Year. It will be interesting to see the role intellectuals play in the era of “you”.

No to Baker-Hamilton, Yes to Secretary Rice

2006-12-15T07:57:00.000-05:00

We live in a dangerous moment. It is understandable that many Americans view Iraq as a failure and want our soldiers back home. Our strength is our weakness – we lack patience and value life.

Baker-Hamilton provided a wish list, but the report has two fundamental flaws. First, it asked for consensus instead of providing options. Second, it “Americanized” the problem. Yes, Iraq strengthened the jihads, but it also invoked a debate in the Arab World that was not there three years ago.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday rejected a bipartisan panel's recommendation that the United States seek the help of Syria and Iran in Iraq, saying the "compensation" required by any deal might be too high…she did not want to trade away Lebanese sovereignty to Syria or allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon as a price for peace in Iraq.

Rice argued that the Middle East is being rearranged in ways that provide the United States with new opportunities, what she repeatedly called a "new strategic context."… She said the range of struggles in the Middle East, such as the election of Hamas in the Palestinian territories, the conflict between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, and strife in Iraq, represents a "clarifying moment" between extremists and what she called mainstream Arabs. (WP)

The future of the Arab World belongs to these “clarifying moments”: the power struggle between Sunnis and Shia, the adaptation of Islam to modern values of tolerance and equality, and the de-glorification of Death. Our role is to support the process to freedom, not to appease the bullies.

Cultures Clash and Concur in Turkey

2006-12-13T10:42:00.000-05:00

Since 9/11, I’m on a search for Moderate Islam, people who view Islam as adaptable to the modern values of equality and tolerance. Such a person is Mustafa Akyol, a Turkish writer, a blogger (TheWhitePath.com) and an ardent believer in Intelligent Design.

Akyol’s reflections on the Pope’s trip to Turkey had highlighted the problem and the prescription for dialog. Orman Pamuk who recently won the Nobel Prize for literature remarked that “Political Islam doesn't have much to do with Islam. It's about politics and nationalism and anti-Westernism.”

Akyol explains in “How Turks See the Pope.”

“… the anti-Western (and to a degree anti-Christian) trend in Turkey is more complex than most Westerners seem to assume. This trend is actually a manifestation of the ideology called "Occidentalism" -- a term coined Ian Buruma and Avi Margalit to define the distorted depiction and the systematic detestation of the West -- and it is not limited to the Islamists. Not all Occidentalists are Muslim, to put it succinctly, and not all Muslims are Occidentalist.”

The Pope’s visit to Turkey was controversial. “Pope Benedict XVI alienated a billion Muslims with his Regensburg speech.” But the visit was a success because of the "Sultan Ahmet moment."

What made that moment so significant was the reciprocal courtesy between the pontiff and his Muslim hosts. He walked into the Muslim shrine with Istanbul Grand Mufti Mustafa Çagrici -- who about a month ago had signed an "Open Letter to His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI by 38 Leading Muslim Scholars and Leaders," a scholarly response to the Regensburg address. “

“Pope Benedict made gesture after gesture from the first moment he arrived in Ankara... Positive steps, like the Sultan Ahmet moment, do find echoes on the other side of the world, and this means that there is really hope for averting a clash of civilizations.”

Sadly, secularists perceived as a threat just as religious fundamentalists. But faith is not religion. Many seculars believe in God, just not in the religious edicts that require this or that action to justify faith.

My Toilet Flushed, Must Be A Mossad Agent

2006-12-12T08:18:00.000-05:00

In the shadows of the Iraq Study Group wish list for the Middle East and Iran’s Holocaust denial conference, Lisa Beyer exposes the ‘The Big Lie About the Middle East’ in Time magazine.

In lumping the Iraq mess in with the Palestinian problem--and suggesting the first could not be fixed unless the second was too--the Baker-Hamilton commission lent credibility to a corrosive myth: that the fundamental problem in the Arab world is the plight of the Palestinians.

Certainly, Israel has at times been an obnoxious neighbor, but God help the Arab leaders, propagandists and apologists if a day ever comes when the Arab-Israeli mess is unraveled. One wonders how they would then explain why in Egypt 4 of every 10 people are illiterate; Saudi Arabian Shi'ites (not to mention women) are second-class citizens; 11% of Syrians live below subsistence level; and Jordan's King can unilaterally dissolve Parliament, as he did in 2001.

“But the report's airy prescription for frog-marching Israelis and Palestinians into new peace talks perpetuates another persistent fiction: that U.S. involvement is the key to a breakthrough. That contradicts the real-life story of all three of the major peace agreements Israel has signed, with the Egyptians, Palestinians and Jordanians. Each was the result of bold initiative not by Washington but by local leaders, when conditions were ripe. In all three cases, the accords were the product of negotiations begun in secret behind the backs of the Americans. The Oslo accords with the Palestinians ultimately fell apart, but not because of a collapse of U.S. diplomacy; rather, because of a failure of leadership by Yasser Arafat.”

If there’s a shadow for hope in the Middle East, it is the backfire from Iran’s hotheaded behavior. So far, the autocratic regimes of Saudi Arabia and Egypt had no reason to promote a Palestinian state. ‘Peace’ with Egypt is a cold deal that allows ‘Egyptian intellectuals’ to lead the hate parade against Israel. Saudi Arabia didn’t care if its religious extremists financed Hamas. But as Iran promotes the Palestinians cause as the soundbite for its political power, suddenly it makes sense for the Sunnis to actually try to solve the Palestinians' pain.

Support ‘Family’ Not ‘Marriage’

2006-12-11T08:38:00.000-05:00

In statistics, the trick of a proper analysis is to isolate a variable while all other factors are equal. Since reality tends to be a complex enterprise, errors are common and can be damaging. Such is the current trend to equate marriage, rather being un-married, with poverty.

Yes, marriage provides stability as claimed by the religious right. Yes, married people have significant financial advantages and provide a fertile ground for entrepreneurship as noted by Arnold Kling (TCS). Yes, in America most unmarried women are poor, uneducated and raise children in unsavory environment (WSJ).

But hold on, “an increasing number of Europeans choosing to have children out of wedlock (32.2%) vs. inside marriage (67.8%). In Denmark, for example, 60% of firstborns have unmarried parents. That figure hits 80% in certain districts of Norway” (FP). In Europe, unmarried but stable with children is a choice with no stigma.

The 1950s version of a family – a man, a wife and 2.4 children living in picture perfect harmony – didn’t hold up then and is certainly not true now. Today’s family is a phalanx of first and more marriages, children from different spouses, and a wide range of parent-child relationships from the adopted, to the gay, to the unknown. Just as we live in an open and complex society, the smallest social unit – the family – is flexible and multifaceted. Instead of shaming people into wedlock, lets find ways to promote stability without stigma.

Negotiate Or Appease?

2006-12-06T12:50:00.000-05:00

As the recommendations of the Iraq Study group open up for public scrutiny, it is clear there is no magic wand. Yes, the situation is ‘Grave and Deteriorating', but the dangers of retreat outweigh the dangers of trying to win. To me, the problem with the Iraq war was in the definition of ‘winning’. The idea of a western-style democracy in Iraq is tempting, but not realistic in an Arab world ruled by tribal lords. Democracy takes time, and our job is giving the Iraqi people some time to find their path to freedom. Question is, how long and how much.

The Iraq Study group recommendations to refocus on Iraqi training and accountability sound great, but rapid withdrawal sounds as a retreat. Talking to Iran and Syria made a lot of sense the month after we entered Iraq. Now it feels like begging. Appeasement invoked World War Two and brought Hitler and the Holocaust. Today, Iran’s mullahs call for the destruction of Israel and support terrorism, not to mention a wild chase to acquire a nuclear bomb. Syria wants back the Golan Heights that overlooks northern Israel, while hosting the Hamas leadership and trying to retake Lebanon. So, what exactly are we planning to talk about with Syria and Iran?

Opening channels of communication is fine, but beware of commitments. If we want to solve the Iraq quagmire, ask Saudi Arabia to get more involved. The trick to Iraq is the balance between the Shia majority, the once-dominating Sunnis and the Kurds. Let Saudi Arabia counter measure Iran. Play the Arab game, the Arab way. Meanwhile, we should tweak our forces but not run away from the fight for freedom.

New Winds in Lebanon

2006-12-05T14:52:00.000-05:00

The proxy battle in Lebanon may add a new element – the involvement of Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Tens of trucks reportedly delivered explosives to Hizbullah warehouses in the southern suburb. Parking lots in Beirut, Tripoli, Sidon and Baalbeck have been transformed into workshops to booby-trap cars, in an apparent prepapring for a full scale civil war in the country. (If this is true, the Saudi King's warning that he will not let Lebanon turn into another Iraq suddenly makes sense).

Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak sent two letters to Berri requesting an end to the blockade of the government building and to street protests. Speaking to reporters yesterday, Mubarak sent a veiled threat that "many Arab countries" will intervene if Iran continues to meddle in Lebanese politics. (Via Michael Totten)

If these two bellwethers of the Arab World decide that protecting Lebanon’s Sunnis from the Iran-supported Shia Hezbollah merits action, it would change the nature of the Middle East.

Test of Will and Fire in Lebanon

2006-12-02T12:57:00.000-05:00

‘May you live in interesting times’ probably feels more like a curse than a blessing for the Lebanese people. Navigating the political waters of the 18 sects was never easy, and loyalties sometimes shift. The March 14 Revolution that led to Syria’s withdrawal after the Harri murder in 2005 was a symbol for democracy, something neither Hezbollah, Syria’s Assad or Iran’s Mullahs were willing to accept. In the summer, Hezbollah tested Israel, and it ‘won’ while Lebanon ‘lost’.

The current battle is between the power of the will (Seniora’s government was elected) and the power of fire (Hezbollah received $300M and 20,000 rockets from Iran). Sadly, I agree with those who view Lebanon as the proxy battleground between Iran and the United States. Add in Al-Qaeda, and the potential for a bigger mess becomes frightening.

For more see Abu Kais via Michael Totten, Counterterrorism Blog and MEMRI.

The Historian by Elizabeth Kostova

2006-12-01T10:51:00.000-05:00

(Amazon Book Review) In 1972, a teenage girl discovers a book and a set of letters addressed to: “My dear and unfortunate successor.” The book is one of a series scattered by Dracula – the cruel ruler of Wallacia in the 15th century, also known as Vlad the Impaler- to entice scholars into his service. Thus we embark on three quests weaved in history: the girl’s search for her father, the father’s search for his mentor Professor Rossi 20 years earlier, and Professor Rossi’s adventures during the 1930s.

The plot blends romance (Paul and Helen Rossi, Professor Rossi and Helen’s mother, Barley and the girl) and friendships (Paul and Professor Rossi, Rossi and Hodges, Paul and Turgut). History is prominent as the story leisurely wanders around Europe of the Cold War, especially Romania, Bulgaria and the East-West divide of Europe to the Ottoman Empire and modern Turkey.

Not fast paced, and somewhat tedious, the book still shines as Kostova masterly navigates the three intervened stories. More a literary mystery than a horror thriller, The Historian is a wonderful novel.

The Global Warming Mishmash

2006-11-30T14:53:00.000-05:00

Mention Global Warming and the response – whether positive or negative – tends to be emotional. Going green is a fashion statement akin to the bestseller book everyone buys but most don’t read. Taken together, Bjorn Lomborg, the Skeptical Environmentalist, is the punch bag: the ‘immoral’ scientist daring to challenge the notion that Men is destroying Earth.

In a recent conversation (TCS), Lomborg debunks some myths. Yes, the Earth is getting warmer, but not as fast as most people believe. And yes, awareness is helping to tackle the trends. Yet, the two most important points in the Global Warming debate are not clearly mentioned. First, the scientific debate is not whether Global Warming exists or not – the Earth is getting warmer - rather how fast and why. Second, the political debate is not whether something should be done or not, rather how should we invest precious resources – say investing first in healthcare – and how to tackle Global Warming without hurting growth.

Moving to renewable energy such as ethanol, wind and solar would help both solve Global Warming and relax the noose of oil-rich countries. Instead of ‘wasting energy’ by vilifying scientists, we should focus on developing better technology and nudge the politicians to follow with smart market-based policies.

Back From The Depths Of Work And Life

2006-11-29T10:49:00.000-05:00

I took a much needed break from the world and focused on the things that matter, such as work and the small joys of life. Too much blogging, especially on politics, pre-election time, made me want to hide from the media that increasingly portrays the world falling apart. In a post-thanksgiving mood (Abraham Lincoln made Thanksgiving a national holiday when the civil war ended), I searched my overflowing inbox for good news and found some in Afghanistan.

The Asia Foundation is out with its 2006 survey of Afghan public opinion, and it's chock full of heartening findings. Eighty-seven percent of the public trusts the new Afghan National Army. Remarkably, a similar percentage trusts the oft-maligned and still ineffective national police force. Seventy-seven percent report that they are happy with the progress of Afghan democracy, and 54 percent feel more prosperous than under the Taliban. (FP Passport)

What Osama has we don’t? Patience. Freedom takes time.

Sanity Survives E-Day

2006-11-08T13:21:00.000-05:00

The Republican Charlie Christ won Governor. Clay Shaw lost to Ron Klein. And Bill Nelson won in a landslide. Since I had no agenda, mostly unease, I have no voter remorse, nor an idealistic glee or discontent, only hope for a better Congress.

Most of the battles I cared about were outside my realm. I’m glad Nancy Pelosi will become the first woman Speaker, but I hope she refrains from far-left brouhaha. I’m thrilled Joe Lieberman survived the anti-war venom in Connecticut. Earthquake of accountability. Not in policy. And more good news for “21 century value voters”:

In a triple setback for conservatives, South Dakotans rejected a law that would have banned virtually all abortions, Arizona became the first state to defeat an amendment to ban gay marriage, and Missouri approved a measure backing stem-cell research. (WSJ)

Fresh faces, a wind of change, and a new Defense Secretary.

Thumbs up for democracy.

Doggie Power

2006-11-07T09:05:00.000-05:00

Politics is everywhere, even for dog owners. Talk about targeted marketing. I’m a white suburban female that supports animal rights. And yes, the television ads against amendment 3 that made fun from the 2004 pigs amendment backfired.

Piccola is a survivor, and adopting her was my way of dealing with the horrors of Hurricane Katrina. Yes, Animal Rights is a political issue that will become more and more important.

Guide to the Muddled Middle Voter

2006-11-07T07:20:00.000-05:00

Foreign policy debacles dominate the news, but ‘all politics is local’ holds true for me. Iraq exemplifies how long is the road to democracy, North Korea is a China problem, and Iran runs amok expecting the 12th Imam to restore the Islamic Caliphate. Solving the energy conundrum will deal with both climate change and the global pow-wow for energy. And as much as I don’t approve of the Republicans’ performance, I don’t support the Democrats economic agenda. (WSJ: The Non-Contract with America). Since I’m not voting for a President, I’ll take each vote on its own merits.

Senate: In the race of the incumbent Bill Nelson (D) versus Katherine Harris (R), I never had doubts. For character and a bi-partisan philosophy, Bill Nelson gets my vote.

House (Dist 22): Vote for the Democrat Ron Klein if your goal is to punish Bush and Company, but my vote is for Florida and the incumbent Clay Shaw.

Governor: In education, Charlie Crist (R) promotes accountability and Jim Davis (D) bows to the teacher’s union. In homeowner insurance, Crist supports competition and Davis helps those who need help most. Neither candidate has good ideas. Charlie Christ may be more effective, but as a 21st Century value voter, Jim Davis gets my vote.

As for the rest, I follow the Florida Sun-Sentinel.

I fear a Democratic witch hunt as much as Republican incompetence. If there is a message in this mid-term elections is for both parties to learn to work together.

Back By Popular Demand: FL Constitutional Amendments

2006-11-07T07:01:00.000-05:00

They’re back! Nothing beats the fun of trying to figure out what is hiding behind the long sentences that clutter the ballad.

Yes on No 1. State planning and budget process: Our leaders have the bad habits of balancing the budget with one-time pops such as selling an asset. This amendment limits accounting shenanigans to 3%.

No on No 3. Require 60%, not simple majority, for constitutional amendments: Limit our once-in-two-years ability to tell our leaders what we think? I don’t think so. Saving pigs, slot machines and minimum wage are all part of the game.

Yes on No. 4 Require $57m for Tobacco prevention program: Teenagers smoke because it’s cool. Cutting the fund from $70 million to $1 million isn’t.

(Probably) No on No. 6 Increase homestead exemption for low-income seniors. If I didn’t read about it, I would vote yes, but this vague amendment is a band-aid that makes the complex problem of homeowner insurance worse.

(Probably) No on No. 7 Permanent homestead exemption for veteran seniors. Same story as No.6. On its own, I would vote yes, but we need a comprehensive policy, not for specific segments of people, worthy as they are.

No on No. 8 Eminent domain. A restrictive law already exists – with pricing set by a jury. If the law needs tweaking than another law would do, not an amendment.

Fun aside, voting requires homework. With the correct wording, most proposals sound good, sadly, in too many cases, they are too good to be true.

Charlie Christ (R) Vs. Jim Davis (D): Mystifying Race For Florida’s Governor

2006-11-06T10:30:00.000-05:00

When I looked at election sheet, I realized I had no idea what either candidate for Governor stood for. So, I went on a fact-finding mission and this is what I found.

Replaying the debate, I developed unease with Charlie Christ self-promotion. The newspaper reaffirmed my gut feelings that, contrary to the ads, Jim Davis is a low key but focused lawmaker. Next came the candidates’ positions on the two key issues in this election, education and home insurance.

Davis wants to overhaul Bush's educational system that grades and funds schools based on their test scores -- a position shared by 64 percent of the voters. Christ would leave the program largely intact (Miami Herald). The current system gives A-F grades to public schools, and uses the FCAT as an accountability benchmark. Davis claims education should not revolved around a test. Christ wants pay raises for the top 25% teachers. Davis wants a boost to all teachers. Christ supports school vouchers. Davis does not.

I support the Alberta model (choice among public schools), and although school vouchers divert much-needed public funds to unregulated private schools, I rather have lousy choices than the current no-competition no-accountability status quo. Also, teachers need responsibility, and the FCAT is a good as any. So, although I’m not happy with the current system, it creates incentives for more skillful people to enter the education field.

Homeowners insurance is a big deal.

Davis wants to eliminate the state-run Citizens Insurance and the multi-billion fund that provides back-up for insurers and use the money to cover homes and condos up to $500,000, allowing the private market to insure the rest. The state's liability would be capped at $20 billion.

Crist wants to lower insurance costs by increasing competition. Companies that provide auto insurance, for example, would have to offer homeowners coverage, and national insurance companies would have to underwrite more of the cost of doing business in Florida. (Miami Herald)

My free market instincts go for the Republican plan, but those who suffered the most from the housing boom are renters, low income and first-time homebuyers.

And while both Christ and Davis oppose gay marriage and support civil contracts, Christ opposes gay adoptions. That’s malicious.

I find myself in a conundrum. I want to vote for Jim Davis for so many reasons, except the one that matters to me, education. Charlie Christ is leading the polls, so this could be my vote for Change. It will be a close call.

Other cabinet posts include (R vs. D) Bill McCollum vs. Skip Campbell for Attorney General, Tom Lee vs. Alex Sink for Chief Financial Officer, and Charles Bronson vs. Eric Copeland for Commissioner of Agriculture. The Miami Herald and the Sun-Sentinel recommend the first two Democrats and keeps the Republican Bronson. I concur. Tallahassee could use new faces.

Caveats on Minimum Wage and Poverty

2006-11-05T13:03:00.000-05:00

As emotions run high, the Democrats promises are populist in nature: first, raise the minimum wage, and second, eliminate tax cuts for the rich. The first helps the poor. The second redistributes wealth.

The debate on minimum wage contains the notion that raising the minimum wages equals helping the poor. But what is poverty? Flow the debate (Would you rather be in the middle 20 percent of the income distribution today or in the top 20 percent 50 years ago?) and there is no clear answer.

Proponents talk about hardship wages. The numbers are sad. A full time job with minimum wage provides less than $15,000 a year. But that’s per person, not household. Studies show that for many people poverty is a temporary state (Café Hayak), and a better way to combat poverty is to increase the earned-income tax credit (Posner).

Democrats want to raise the minimum wage because it sounds good and because it is a pet-project by the labor unions (WSJ). But as the demand curve slops down, all things being equal, higher pay means fewer jobs. Therefore, raise the minimum wage, fewer jobs. (TCS). Some argue reality does not follow theory (i.e. Oregon), but should the government (i.e. Wal-Mart), not the markets, decide what is the value of a job?

The Democratic call for raising the minimum wages provokes emotions and I voted for it in Florida during the 2004 elections, but where is the broader debate? I see only band-aids. Raising the minimum wage sounds good but it fails to attack the sources of poverty.

Countdown: Clay Shaw (R) vs. Ron Klein (D)

2006-11-05T12:00:00.000-05:00

Some nasty ads came from both sides of aisle, and, for the sake of my sanity, most went directly to the garbage. On the positive side, another Democrat, retired Congressman Sam Gibbons, crossed the party line and endorsed the incumbent Republican Clay Shaw. And add a cheer on from the Sun-Sentinel.

Put together, Clay Shaw advantage is that if Republicans retain control of the House, he will become Chairman of Ways and Means, which is good for Florida. And although Clay Shaw totted the Republican line, his character was not challenged but certified by a prominent Democrat. Another line of attack is dissatisfaction for Medicare Part D, which I find ironic since promoting a large government program is usually a Democratic prescription.

Point is, the Republicans deserve to lose, but the Democrats don’t deserve to win. My preference is a split Congress, with the hope that it would force the two parties to cooperate. Hence, my vote is for Florida, and Clay Shaw.

Return To Insanity: 4 Days To E-Day

2006-11-04T20:36:00.001-05:00

Work kept me busy, so I was spared the usual irritation that comes from watching the endless marathon of political ads, barbs and gaffs. As Election Day looms closer, both parties sharpened their lines of attack.

Vote Democrat as punishment to Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Company, but without serious alternatives. On the economic side, the Democrats promise to “help the middle class” - which is better than ‘tax the rich’ but in practice is the same thing – and ‘end corruption’. In practical terms, the Democrats will raise taxes, regulate healthcare, raise the minimum wage, and tax the oil companies.

Vote Republican for keeping the tax cuts and support for the war on terrorism.

Yes, I want Change. The debate on Iraq will continue either way, and that’s good, because more debate provides more options. And yes, between incompetence (Katrina), corruption (Abrahmoff), and sex scandals (Foleygate), the Republicans need to re-discover humility. Also, the zeal of the far right during the Terri Shicavo case and the malice of the anti-gay amendments bother me.

So yes, I want Change, but what does it mean on E-Day? Next, check the economic issues and review the ballot.

Negative Ads: Democrats vs. Clay Shaw (R)

2006-10-27T14:40:00.000-04:00

The Florida Sun-Sentinel recently endorsed Clay Shaw because the incumbent Congressman was good for Florida. Shaw’s other attributes are seniority and his support for Stem Cell research. To counter that strength, the Democrats concentrated most their attacks not on Clay Shaw himself but as a representative of the Republican Party.

· Clay Shaw supported President Bush 90% of the time. Most of the attack ads centered on Shaw’s support for President Bush policies on Iraq. The Foley scandal is mentioned in passing as a Republican bungle, but there is no direct blame in Shaw’s conduct. My take, Clay Shaw is a loyal Republican, no more, no less.

· Shaw supports Big Business. One ad dealt with oil drilling on Florida’s shores that I’m conflicted about (more energy supply vs. hurting the environment and tourism). Another ad mentioned a bill that gives chemical companies immunity from MTBE, a potentially cancer causing pollutant. That’s bad.

· Clay Shaw supported Medicare Part D. The ad attacks the complexity of the program and says it benefited pharmaceuticals more than seniors. Coming from the Democrats, the argument sounds petty.

· Clay Shaw ‘drug deal’, but according to Factscheck.org: “We find the DCCC's evidence of this flimsy at best.”

Bottom line: If you disapprove of President Bush, vote against Clay Shaw.

And the negative ads just keep coming …

Negative Ads: Republicans vs. Ron Klein (D)

2006-10-26T13:33:00.000-04:00

By the amount of negative ads that flood my mail, it seems as if the only political race that matters in Florida is the one between Clay Shaw(R) and Ron Klein(D) to the US House. As the file gets bigger, could I actually learn something useful?

· Ron Klein is a lobbyist who has "sold influence to developers, insurers, [and] government contractors." But, according to factcheck.org: “While Klein has registered as a lobbyist in Palm Beach County, he has not registered to lobby the state legislature and Shaw has produced no evidence that Klein did so.” My take, Ron Klein is a career politician, for good and bad.

· Ron Klein is the Insurance industry’s guy. He voted against Citizens Property Insurance, against lowering Citizens Property Premiums, opposed premium credits for homeowners who add storm glass and other fortification to prevent hurricane damage, and he is in the top 10 recipients of the Insurance Industry in Florida. As a supporter of free markets that is also a resident of Hurricane ridden Florida, I have mixed feelings about this issue.

· “Ron Klein included a secrecy provision in a bill that would allow deals to be struck involving the use of taxpayer funds without informing the taxpayer.” Don’t know what the above means, but I agree it smells bad.

· Ron Klein voted against an effort to permanently repeal the death tax. Well, the Democrats latest mantra is ‘rich is bad’.

· “Ron Klein voted at least nine times in favor of higher taxes and fees, including the sales tax, gas tax and tax on school supplies.” Well, without Income Tax the Sales Tax is primary revenue. I support a gas tax to reduce energy demand (The Pique Club). And if a tax on school supplies will help train better teachers than I’ll vote for that. If the Democrats do have a weak point with me, it is their support for taxes. I’m against Big Government. But, I support a gas tax that would reduce demand for oil and help the development of alternative energy.

Bottom line: Democrats will raise taxes and Ron Klein is not a vote for change.

Next, the Democrats attack the incumbent Republican Congressmen Clay Shaw.

Taxpayers For Truth And Change, Who?

2006-10-24T13:01:00.000-04:00

In today’s mail, a blistering attack against Clay Shaw on a myriad of issues. It took me five minutes to figure out who send it out – Taxpayers for Truth and Change in Congress. Taxpayers, who? No return address. No identifying marks. Not on Google. So much for a campaign financing reform.

On a closer look, all the blame against Shaw is that he is a loyal Republican. I knew that. So, if the idea was to make me vote against Clay Shaw, than I can clearly say, it backfired. I don’t like to be manipulated by an unknown group. The mail irritated me to the point of leaning against voting for change, because if this letter is any indication of what does it mean to vote for a Democrat, than this is a change I don’t want.

Update: Just as my tide turns for the Republicans, they botch up again.

(MSNBC) Mehlman: Controversial Ford attack ad is 'fair'. RNC Chairman denies ad uses race as a wedge issue in Tenn. Senate race.

I saw the ad and it is racist and uncalled for. Take it off.

(Washington Post) To Rush Limbaugh on Monday, Michael J. Fox looked like a faker. The actor, who suffers from Parkinson's disease, has done a series of political ads supporting candidates who favor stem cell research, including Maryland Democrat Ben Cardin, who is running against Republican Michael Steele for the Senate seat being vacated by Paul Sarbanes.

Oh, please.

Back where I started - undecided.

Echo Park by Michael Connelly

2006-10-21T08:36:00.000-04:00

(Amazon Book Review) In the 12th book, Harry Bosch had returned to active duty in the LAPD Open-Unsolved unit. When a serial killer Raynard Waits claims he had killed Marie Gesto in 1993, Bosch insists he joins the investigation. Together with his former-returned lover, the FBI Agent Rachel Walling, Harry Bosch finds himself, again, in the middle of a conspiracy that smacks of money and politics.

As usual, the plot sparkles with surprising twists – such as how Harry Bosch missed a crucial clue back in 1993 that allowed Raynard Waits to kill nine more women - but sometimes the prose drowns in the details of food and music. With Harry Bosch, Connelly tests the limits of right and wrong and what is a ‘correct choice’, but it feels as if Connelly had maximized the character’s stretch. Although Echo Park is not one of Michael Connelly’s spectacular books (such as The Poet or The Lincoln Lawyer), it is still a great read.

And More (Ibis) Friends

2006-10-20T18:31:00.000-04:00

The (Business) World According To Warren Buffet

2006-10-17T16:03:00.000-04:00

What can one person do? Not much, according to a McKinsey report on CEOs.

(via businesspundit) The McKinsey research unambiguously identifies the best practices for achieving these outcomes. Senior executives must provide for clear roles within a structure matched to the needs of the business (accountability), articulate a compelling vision of the future (direction), and develop an environment that encourages openness, trust, and challenge (culture).

But as Warren Buffet demonstrated in his letter to his managers, the CEO view of the world does matter:

(via Bainbridge) But we can have a huge effect in minimizing such activities by jumping on anything immediately when there is the slightest odor of impropriety. Your attitude on such matters, expressed by behavior as well as words, will be the most important factor in how the culture of your business develops. And culture, more than rule books, determines how an organization behaves.
Thanks for your help on this. Berkshire’s reputation is in your hands.

The Egret Who Came To Visit

2006-10-17T14:07:00.000-04:00

One of the joys in Florida's suburbia living is the daily visits of birds. This morning, a Great Egret napped under our shaded porch. He rested until Piccola decided it was time to announce who was the true master of the house. The Egret nodded, said goodbye, and flew away. Till next time.

Trends In Consumer Energy Markets

2006-10-16T15:20:00.000-04:00

In the Wall Street Journal, (in the most comprehensive and clearly written article I had yet to see on this topic) Rebecca Smith had outlined the current state of energy consumption trends and policies in the United States.

Demand is skyrocketing “the nation's energy bill totaled $296 billion last year, up nearly 50% from 1993.” To reduce demand, companies vie for energy efficient products and local governments rewrite standards and conservation policies. After the 1973-4 Arab Oil embargo, the federal government set efficiency standards for automobiles and appliances, and utilities shifted from oil to coal and nuclear fuel. High oil prices and the resulting global instability provide the impetus for another major reform in the energy markets.

Smith identified 10 trends that can make a big difference:
1. More-efficient lights. If each U.S household replaced on regular bulb with a compact fluorescence that cuts by 75% and last eight times longer, we will save more than $600 million a year, “enough to light seven million homes, and the greenhouse-gas reductions from power plants would be equivalent to taking one million cars off the road.”
2. More-efficient hardware, such as air-conditioning units.
3. Smarter sensors.
4. Better measures. One consumer calculated that by turning off his computer at the night, he had lowered the electric costs from $48.50 to $18.80 a month.
5. Setting standards. The federal government minimum standards for energy efficiency on appliances such as dishwashers and refrigerators saved consumers about $50 billion in 1990-2000.
6. New building codes. All states have building codes for health, fire and safety. But 40 also have codes for energy efficiency.
7. Incentives for utilities. “Most utilities earn higher profits as energy use rises; that's the way their rates are structured. So, conservation efforts undermine their ability to make money and get reimbursed for their costs. But many states have changed that pricing scheme to remove the disincentive for utilities to sponsor energy-reduction programs.”
8. Variable pricing. Sophisticated meters, with daily not monthly monitoring, allow pricing schemes per time of day or season.
9. Rebates. “When New York offered a $75 bounty for old air conditioners in 2002, 160,000 units were turned in, saving enough juice over 10 years to equal a full year's output from a large power plant.”
10. Customer-response programs. An incentive for to customers to trade up to more energy-efficient equipments.

Finally, a shift toward reducing energy demand. It is good for our innovative culture. It is good for climate change. It is good for global politics. It is such a good trend that I wonder why it is not a bigger political issue in this election. Wake up, please.

Foleygate: Musings Of The (Muddled) Middle

2006-10-10T13:22:00.000-04:00

Do I hold the Republican Party accountable for Foley’s actions? Yes, and no. Yes, because the Republican leadership knew enough to take action at least a year ago, if not more. No, because the Democrats forgave Clinton for performing oral sex with an intern in the White House. What makes the Democrats more righteous than the Republicans? My sense of disgust is across the political spectrum.

The race for Governor and its cabinet depends on local issues, and I have yet to see details, only television ads full of vague promises. In the Clay Shaw vs. Ron Klein race, I’m still clueless.

CNN had a segment that senior citizens in West Palm Beach are ‘outraged’ at the new Medicare Drug plan, and that could backfire at the incumbent Republican Clay Shaw. I find it hilarious, and troubling, that the Democrats are exploiting anger against a gigantic government plan and, at the same time, are promoting a universal – government controlled – healthcare.

But Clay Shaw had lost a point with me for supporting a bill that gives chemical companies immunity from MTBE, a potentially cancer causing pollutant. I understand the business reasons, but cleaning after you finish playing is something we teach our children, and the same goes for big business.

As the political battle intensifies, I start to tune off. If the message doesn’t concern ideas for energy, healthcare or education, I don’t want to hear about it. The call for change has no meaning unless there’s an idea where we want to go. The Republicans (as Rumsfeld might say) are known, but the Democrats are unknown. In my court, it’s the Democrats election to lose.

The World in 2050

2006-10-05T12:28:00.000-04:00

The United Nation Population Fund released a demographic report for 2006 and a projection for 2050 (via Foreign Policy).

Aside from the obvious shifts, the underlying threats are clear. If 6.6 billion people today have a hard time with the most basic modern needs of education, healthcare and energy, imagine what will happen when the world contains 9 billion people. If we don’t attack illiteracy, improve health care distribution, and find renewable energy resources, we won’t live in a better world.

Top 10 2006 (in millions)
1.	China	1323.6
2.	India	1119.5
3.	United States	301.0
4.	Indonesia	225.5
5.	Brazil	188.9
6.	Pakistan	161.2
7.	Bangladesh	144.4
8.	Russia	142.5
9.	Nigeria	134.4
10.	Japan	128.2

Top 10 2050 (in millions)			Pop. in 2006
1.	India	1592.7	1119.5
2.	China	1392.3	1323.6
3.	United States	395.0	301.0
4.	Pakistan	304.7	161.2
5.	Nigeria	258.1	134.4
6.	Indonesia	284.6	225.5
7.	Brazil	253.1	188.9
8.	Bangladesh	242.9	144.4
9.	D.R. Congo	177.3	59.3
10.	Ethiopia	170.2	79.3

Current State Of Affairs

2006-10-04T08:20:00.000-04:00

The fallout from Republican Representative Foley sex scandal dominates the headlines. In Florida, the news brought mixed feelings. Foley was good for Florida, which does not excuse what he had done. Preying on minors should have not been tolerated, not yesterday, and not a year ago. Even Prof. Bainbridge, the avid Republican, had suggested it is time for the party to take a rest.

The Democrats are, again, saying all the wrong things. They gloat, but when it comes to sex scandals most people remember the Democratic Presidents Kennedy and Clinton. The party is in disarray, and the slogans focus on inequality (we hate the rich) and minimum wage (we hate big business) instead of how to deal with poverty.

So, I’m back to square one. The political vibes are about personal ambition, not the good of the country. Politics had been reduced to ‘blame the other side’ and ‘choose me not because I’m worth it but because the other side is – expletive’. We’re facing serious problems, from how to defeat terrorism, not only militarily but also in ideas, to the healthcare trap and oil addiction. We stopped thinking, and that’s what scares me the most.

She Stands At The Center Of It All

2006-10-02T20:32:00.000-04:00

She stands at the center of it all
The husband, the kids, the dogs.

Chaos rules, but the house kept
Clean, and the food served warm.
Children run in, and they run out
The dogs bark, play and roam.

She stands at the center of it all
Calm, collect and fast on her feet.

Doors slam, the phone does not stop
Dinging, and the television blares.
People gush in, and people float out
Of the house. Their home. Her home.

She stands at the center of it all
The wife, the mother, the friend.

To Marsha Ehler

On Sin And Forgiveness And God

2006-10-01T09:01:00.000-04:00

I believe in God. I don’t, however, believe in God the Father, the Punisher, the Forgiver, the Designer, the Lord, and the many other humanized emotions that are attributed to the entity of God. I’m Jewish. I don’t, however, go to synagogue, eat only kosher foods, or pray. I do, however, fast on Yom Kippur.

Some translate Yom Kippur as the Day of Atonement, some as the Day of Repentance, the first relates to sin, the second to forgiveness. To God, we proclaim we had sinned. To family, friends and enemies, we forgive for whatever we can. It is a somber day, full of rituals, but it is also a day of beginnings.

Yom Kippur is a special day for me. It reminds me of war (Yom Kippur War 1973). It reminds me of Israel (where everything stops for a day). It reminds me of my Grandfather (most of the times I went to synagogue). It reminds me of growing up. It is the day I stop, I breathe, and I look backwards, and forwards. Yom Kippur is my ritual of renewal.

Zom Kal (fast fast).

Iran: How To Kill A Woman

2006-09-29T15:57:00.000-04:00

(MEMRI) The Iranian authorities also announced recently that Malak Ghorbani, a 34-year-old Kurdish woman and mother of two who has been convicted of adultery, has been sentenced to death by public stoning. This punishment is still used in Iran against women and girls convicted of adultery or of having inappropriate relations with men, and is sometimes meted out even to rape victims. On the day of her punishment, the woman is wrapped in sheets with her hands tied behind her back. She is then placed in a pit filled with earth, with only her head showing, and the members of the community are invited to hurl rocks at her until she dies. The size of the rocks is mandated by law so as to ensure that the condemned individual is subjected to the maximum amount of pain.

I have no words.